Picking,Delivery And Financing Costs Analysis Of E-Commerce Fruit Farmers Based On Decision Tree Model

The rapid development of e-commerce of fresh agricultural products has changed the sales model of fruit farmers,solved the problem of difficult sales of fresh fruits for fruit farmers to some extent,simplified the sales of fresh fruits,and directly connected fruit farmers and fresh fruit consumers through the Internet.It has increased the profit of fruit farmers and protected consumer rights.However,fresh fruit itself has the characteristics of perishability and vulnerability.In order to ensure the quality of fresh fruit,reduce the damage rate of fresh fruit and improve satisfaction and repurchase rate of consumers,it has put forward higher requirements for picking,sorting,packaging,delivery,storage,logistics and other links.On the one hand,it has increased picking and delivery cost of fresh fruit for fruit farmers,and increased the financing needs of e-commerce fruit farmers at the picking and delivery stage.On the other hand,customers' demand based on e-commerce sales model have small and scattered characteristics.In order to ensure the freshness and quality of fresh fruit and reduce storage costs,e-commerce fruit farmers adopt a small number of picking methods.However,with the increasing frequency of online transactions,the selection of a small number of picking methods has led to a large number of picking and delivery times,which has increased the cost of picking,sorting,packaging and delivery.Therefore,from the perspective of e-commerce fruit farmers,the selection of appropriate picking,delivery and financing programs is of vital importance to reducing the cost of picking,delivery and financing for e-commerce fruit farmers in the “first one kilometer”.This paper selects the fruit farmers(fruit farmers who are based in the comprehensive e-commerce platform such as Taobao,Tmall and Jingdong)based on the e-commerce sales model.Firstly,the scenario simulation of the process of picking,delivery and financing of e-commerce fruit farmers was carried out.The financing demand of e-commerce fruit farmers in the “first one kilometer” was analyzed,and then the cost structure of e-commerce fruit farmers was analyzed in all aspects of picking,delivery and financing.Secondly,the e-commerce fruit farmers marketing and financing decision tree model,picking and delivery decision tree model are constructed respectively,and the total cost of each decision path of the decision tree model is calculated in turn.At the same time,the probability value of the chance event obtained by the survey is transformed into a triangular fuzzy number,the integral method and ?-cut base method are used to defuzzification,and the exact value of the probability of occurrence of the chance event is obtained.Finally,by calculating the expected value of the total cost of each solution path in the decision tree model,the scheme with the lowest total cost expectation is the best solution for e-commerce fruit farmers to pick,delivery and finance.An empirical study was conducted on the case of kiwifruit e-commerce farmers in Zhouzhi County,Shaanxi Province.Through the investigation of more than 10 large-scale comprehensive e-commerce fruit farmers,the relevant data was obtained,and the decision tree model constructed in this paper was used to make the program decision.The following conclusions were drawn: First,in the first stage of the marketing and financing decision tree model,according to the principle that the total cost expectation is the smallest,the e-commerce fruit farmers should select the current sale plan.In the second stage of decision-making,according to the principle of minimum total cost expectation,e-commerce fruit farmers should choose different schemes under different scenarios:(1)Under the pre-sale financing scheme,if there is a shortage of funds,electronic order financing should be used for financing.(2)Under the current sale plan,if there is a shortage of funds,credit financing should be used for financing.Second,in the first stage of the picking and delivery decision tree model,the small batch picking scheme is selected according to the principle that the total cost expectation is the smallest.In the second stage of decision-making,according to the principle of minimum expected total cost,e-commerce farmers should choose different schemes under different scenarios:(1)Under the large-scale picking scheme,if there is a problem of fresh fruit slow-moving,a storage strategy should be adopted to solve the problem.(2)Under the small batch picking scheme,if the fresh fruit is out of stock,the secondary picking plan should be adopted to deal with the out-of-stock situation of fresh fruit.