Research On The Mode Of Rental Housing Land Supply Based On The Transfer Of Agricultural Population

With the development of urbanization process in China,the number of agricultural transfer populations in many large and medium-sized cities has gradually occupied a large proportion of the resident population.The transfer of agricultural population has become a social phenomenon that cannot be ignored in China.A large number of agricultural population transfer to the city,which has caused the idleness of rural construction land and triggered a large demand for urban rental housing.The government has established a series of systems such as “The increase in urban construction land is linked to the reduction of rural construction land”,“The change of construction land index is linked to population migration”,and “The rental housing market and the commercial housing market develop together”,trying to optimize the land use efficiency while vigorously developing and cultivating the rental housing market,build a diversified housing supply system,alleviate housing shortages and promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer population.However,under the current land supply system in China,it is difficult to form a large-scale and effective supply of land for housing construction.This has become a bottleneck for the development of the rental housing market and the urban housing demand for agricultural transfer population.The land supply mode for rental housing needs to be optimized and innovated.In view of this,this paper is based on the realistic background that a large number of agricultural population transfer into the city in China.In order to solve the problem of quantity,space and cost of the rental housing market caused by the transfer of agricultural population,this paper designs a new land supply mode of rental housing.In this paper,the principle that replace the urban and rural construction land index is used to form indexes for construction land in some areas,and then make these indexes transfer between different provinces.We use the construction land index in a targeted manner for the development of rental housing to better satisfy the demand of rental housing for a large number of agricultural transfer populations,and to promote the common development of the rental housing market and the commercial housing in the new era.The main research contents of this paper include:Firstly,this paper analyzes the status quo from the quantity and distribution of agricultural transfer population in China,and finds that the current population of agricultural transfer is huge,which is an important part of the floating population in China.This population mainly flows from the central and western regions of China to the eastern and northern regions.Secondly,based on the current development trend of agricultural transfer population in China,this paper predicts the national agricultural transfer population in 2019-2030 through the combination of equal-dimensional GM(1,1)model and BP neural network model.Furthermore,this paper calculates the corresponding land demand for rental housing in 2019-2030,by the predicted population size and per capita housing area and the proportion of the rented population in the agricultural transfer population,and analyzes the current situation of the China's rental housing land supply from the three aspects of supply mode,supply volume and supply distribution.Thirdly,in order to solve the outstanding problems in the quantity,distribution and cost of rental housing land supply under the current system,this paper uses the principle that exchange urban and rural construction land index to design a mechanism and platform for trading of construction land indexes across the country,This paper proposes an new mode of rental housing land supply based on the transfer of agricultural population in China,and analyzes the necessity and feasibility of this mode.Fourthly,this paper further analyzes the operation rules and price formation mechanism of the rental housing land supply mode,and divides the whole transaction process into three major links,detailing the specific operation methods of each link and the rights of each trading platform,as well as the transaction price formed in each link.Fifth,this paper proposes relevant suggestions for the improvement of the rental housing land supply mode from the inside and outside.The suggestions from the inside of the mode mainly include: guaranteeing the relevant property rights of farmers,rationally formulating the transaction compensation mechanism,and perfecting the corresponding laws and regulations;the suggestions from the outside of the mode mainly include: timely following-up government policies and improving the accuracy of market information.Based on the above research contents,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Resolving the rental housing demand for agricultural transfer population must innovate its corresponding land supply mode,and the cross-regional transactions of construction land indexes can provide a new mode for rental housing land supply;(2)In the new land supply mode of rental housing combined with the cross-regional transaction of construction land indexes and rental housing market,it is necessary to construct corresponding local and national trading platforms,and set up reasonable trading methods and a trading price formation mechanism;(3)The new land supply mode of rental housing can generate multi-effects.On the one hand,it can improve and develop China's rental housing market from the perspective of supply,and help alleviate the phenomenon of urban land shortage and high housing prices,which are caused by the massive transfer of agricultural population.On the other hand,it is possible to optimize the allocation of urban and rural construction land and rationally use rural idle land without destroying cultivated land.