Research On Logistics Risk Propagation Mechanism Of Fresh E-commerce Supply Chain Based On SIRS Model

China's fresh market is huge,but the penetration rate of fresh e-commerce is very low.As the last blue ocean in the field of e-commerce,in recent years,fresh e-commerce has developed rapidly.E-commerce giants such as Alibaba and JD.com have laid out the field of fresh e-commerce.Fresh e-commerce market competition is very fierce,coupled with the limitations of fresh logistics technology,fresh e-commerce enterprises' market risk and operational risk increase.Most of the fresh e-commerce companies are in a state of loss.Among them,logistics risk has been a bottleneck restricting the development of fresh e-commerce.Unlike general commodities,fresh products are perishable,difficult to store and short shelf life.There are many risks in the processing,packaging,loading and unloading,transportation,and distribution from the production base to the consumer.Logistics risks can lead to risk events such as delayed delivery and product loss,which can result in companies failing to deliver orders to downstream enterprises on time,quality or quantity.At the same time,these risks will spread and even be magnified step by step along the supply chain network,resulting in losses of upstream and downstream enterprises.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the logistics risk control strategy of fresh e-commerce supply chain from the perspective of supply chain network.Based on this,this paper uses the complex network theory to model the fresh e-commerce supply chain network,and draws on the SIRS model to construct the risk propagation model,to study the propagation mechanism of fresh e-commerce supply chain logistics risk in the network,in order to put forward the control strategy of fresh e-commerce supply chain logistics risk from a new research perspective and improve the stability of the entire fresh e-commerce supply chain network.Firstly,the paper build the fresh e-commerce supply chain network model based on the BA scale-free network model,and describes the growth and preferential connectivity of the fresh e-commerce supply chain network.By analyzing the four main supply chain models of China's fresh e-commerce,the paper abstracted the five-level fresh e-commerce supply chain network model including producers,processing manufacturers,wholesale distributors,fresh e-commerce and logistics service providers.Based on the generation algorithm of BA scale-free network,the local selection coefficient is considered to construct a hierarchical network model of supply chain thatcan be connected across levels.The MATLAB simulation is used to verify whether the complex network statistical features of the constructed supply chain network model conform to the scale-free characteristics and small-world characteristics of the real supply chain network.Secondly,based on the SIRS virus infection model,this paper introduces the infection elimination coefficient ? to construct an improved risk propagation model.Four parameters of risk propagation model are calculated by constructing logistics risk intensity of fresh e-commerce and supply chain immunity evaluation index system.Finally,taking Y fresh e-commerce as an example,the parameter value of risk transmission is calculated to simulate the propagation process of logistics risk in the supply chain network with Y fresh e-commerce as the core.By adjusting the value of each parameter,the influence of each parameter of the risk propagation model on the propagation process was analyzed,and the logistics risk control strategy of Y fresh e-commerce was put forward.