The Study Of The Effect Of Purchase Restriction Policy On Real Estate In China

In recent years,with the rapid development of the economy,the real estate market has entered a stage of rapid development.Housing prices in various provinces and cities have soared,and the increasing rate of in housing prices has been much higher than the income of residents.On the one hand,the rapid rise in housing prices has severely increased the burden of people buying houses;On the other hand,residents' irrational investment has contributed to the real estate bubble.Due to the close relationship between the real estate market and financial institutions,the rise in housing prices has been increasing the systemic risks of financial markets.In order to control rising house prices,local governments have successively introduced a series of measures to control the rising house prices.Among them,the “restriction order” is a typical representative of the government's policy of controlling house prices.With the implementation of the “restriction order” in the first-tier cities such as Beijing in April 2010,local governments successively introduced local purchase restrictions in the same year,and the first round of purchases was hot.By the end of 2011,46 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China had introduced corresponding purchase restriction policies and achieved relatively obvious results.The first round of purchases continued until 2014.In order to recover the real estate market,many local governments have “relaxed” the purchase restriction policy.The first round of purchase restriction policies of all provinces and cities except Super first-tier city has been all canceled.The cancellation of the purchase restriction policy has caused the real estate market to heat up again,and house prices continue to heat up and ferment.In the face of rising house prices,the major cities in the country have successively introduced the second round of “restriction orders” in 2016,and the intensity is stricter than the first round.Whether the purchase restriction policy can effectively curb housing prices has become a controversial topic in various circles.This essay mainly discusses the impact of the purchase restriction policy on housing prices from the perspective of theory and evidence.In theory,we start from the characteristics of the real estate market,analyze the price decision mechanism of the house from the supply and demand theory and market failure theory.We considered that speculative demand dominates in the real estate demand.Speculative demand is the main reason for the high price of housing,and it is also the main purpose of the purchase restriction policy.In order to study the impact of purchase restrictions on housing prices,we first analyze the main characteristics of the real estate market,on this basis,summed up the mechanism of China's real estate purchase restrictions policy.Finally we think that the purchase limit policy achieve the purpose of controlling housing prices mainly by curbing housing speculation.In order to study the specific impact of the purchase restriction policy on China's real estate market,this paper selects housing prices in new residential and second-hand house market.We observe the monthly panel data of these two types of housing prices from January 2010 to December 2018,and the DID model is used to examine the impact of two-wheeled purchase restrictions on different types of housing prices.The innovation of this paper is that,firstly,we use the difference-indifference(DID)method for empirical analysis,and the houses are classified into 3 categories according to the area,the city level and the number of purchases.So we can know the accurate influence of the purchase restriction policy for different cities and differenthouses.Second,the time span of this paper includes two rounds of purchase restriction,and the effectiveness of the purchase restriction policy is tested by comparing the two-round purchase restriction policy.The third is the consumer expectations index are added into the control variables,the impact of consumer expectations are taken into account.After studying the impact of the purchase restriction policy on them,they were also regressed as explanatory variables,we analyzed the residents' attitude towards the purchase restriction policy.