Study On The Effect Evaluation Of Guangzhou Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy

In recent years,China's real estate industry is booming,people's living level and living quality has also been significantly improved,the real estate industry has become an important industry of the national economy.However,along with the development of the real estate economy,the housing price has been climbing all the way and the real estate overheating and other problems have gradually emerged.Moreover,because the real estate market is closely related to people's living life,the high housing price has affected people's living demand and quality of life.In order to resolutely curb the rapid rise of real estate prices and ensure the stable and healthy development of real estate,China has issued macro-control policies on real estate from the national level since 2010,requiring cities with excessively high housing prices to implement real estate purchase restriction policies.Under this background,the GuangZhou municipal government has issued several real estate restrictions,the most recent was released in March 2017 consecutive two real estate restrictions,but whether the implementation of these restrictions has obtained expected results,it is necessary to carry on the effective,systematic and scientific analysis and evaluation,and that provides some countermeasures and suggestions for the future perfect regulation policy.This paper first sorts out the theory of buyer's psychological expectation,game theory and relevant theories of policy evaluation,analyzes the connotation and operation rules of the real estate market,introduces the background and relevant content of Guangzhou 's purchase restriction policy,and makes a preliminary analysis of the current situation data of Guangzhou 's real estate operation.To use game theory to the central government,local government in the real estate market,real estate developers and buyers of multiple interest subjects and their behavior based on the analysis,using the econometric theory according to the operation data of Guangzhoureal estate market,vector autoregressive model and evaluate the effects of restrictions on the real estate market,and on how to further improve the real estate market restrictions put forward the countermeasure and suggestion.