Analysis On Price Fluctuation Characteristics And Relevance Of Onion,ginger And Garlic

Onion,ginger and garlic are indispensable seasoning vegetables in the daily life of Chinese residents.In the diet of residents all over China,they have the habit of using onion,ginger and garlic as seasoning or supplementary food.In 2016,Chinese onion,ginger and garlic planting accounted for nearly 6% of the vegetable planting area and nearly 7% of the output in China,which can be said to occupy an important position in the vegetable industry in China.In recent years,the price fluctuations of vegetables,such as onion,ginger and garlic,have become more and more frequent.The price fluctuations of garlic,garlic and garlic have aroused widespread concern in society.The price fluctuations will affect the normal production order of agricultural producers and the supply and demand cycle of agricultural products,and will also affect consumers.Consumer spending has an impact,increasing consumer expectations of price inflation.Therefore,based on the wholesale price and related data,the price fluctuation characteristics and price correlation of onion,ginger and garlic in China are analyzed and verified,which has important practical significance in stabilizing the price of onion,ginger and garlic and reducing the price fluctuation frequency of onion,ginger and garlic.In this paper,the annual and monthly prices of onion,ginger and garlic wholesale markets in China and major producing areas are taken as research objects.First,the price trend is described by descriptive statistical analysis of annual prices,monthly prices and prices in different major producing areas.Secondly,the price sequence is decomposed into seasons by using X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method.Components,random components,long-term trends and periodic components are compared and analyzed,and the volatility characteristics of different components are compared and analyzed.Finally,the correlation of prices is verified and analyzed by using autoregressive coefficient analysis,price correlation coefficient calculation,cointegration test and vector autoregressive model.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions for stabilizing the price of onion,ginger and garlic.Suggestions and countermeasures.Through analysis,we found that: first,garlic price and onion price trend is similar,ginger price and garlic price trend is opposite.Secondly,the seasonal fluctuation of onion price and garlic price is increasing year by year,and the seasonal fluctuation of ginger price is decreasing year by year.The trend fluctuation of garlic price and ginger price is obvious and opposite.The trend fluctuation of onion price = is relatively gentle,and the periodic fluctuation and random events of onion,ginger and garlic are quite different.It is affected by different production cycles and random events.Thirdly,through the value of correlation coefficient,we can find that the correlation coefficient between onion price and garlic price is the largest,while the correlation coefficient between ginger price and garlic price is the smallest.Fourthly,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of onion,ginger and garlic.The price of onion and garlic has a significant impact on each other.The price of ginger and onion has a significant impact on each other.The main reason for the correlation between the price of onion,ginger and garlic is that onion,ginger and garlic are both used as seasoning vegetables,and the attribute function of seasoning is similar to each other.There is substitution or complementarity between them.The pioneering point of this paper is to analyze the dynamic relationship between the price of onion,ginger and garlic.It mainly studies how the price of onion,ginger and garlic is linked in the long run,how the short-term mutual influence is,and what is the difference between the price of onion,ginger and garlic.Through the co-integration analysis of monthly wholesale price series of onion,ginger and garlic and the establishment of vector autoregressive model,the impulse response and variance decomposition of onion,ginger and garlic prices were analyzed.According to the results,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as supporting the development of new business entities of onion,ginger and garlic,establishing early warning mechanism of production and marketing information of onion,ginger and garlic,co-controlling price fluctuation in major provinces of onion,ginger and garlic,and continuing to improve the protection mechanism of farmers' interests.