Study On Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area

Urban comprehensive carrying capacity is the important basis to weight the sustainable development ability of city,and the continuous improvement of urban comprehensive carrying is the necessary condition to realize sustainable development.With the acceleration of urbanization,population growth rapidly,the scale of rapid expansion,the restriction of urban comprehensive carrying capacity to urban development has attracted more and more attention of academia and government departments.Zhengzhou metropolitan area is issued by the National Development and Reform Commission of the Central Plains Urban agglomeration Development Plan(hereinafter referred to as "Plan")is explicitly stipulated,the Plan proposed: constructing modern Zhengzhou metropolitan area,promoting the internationalization development of Zhengzhou metropolitan area,the special geographical position of Zhengzhou metropolitan area plays an important role in the development of Central Plains urban agglomeration.Therefore,the study of the urban comprehensive bearing capacity of Zhengzhou metropolitan area and the future development trend can provide theoretical basis and suggestions for the development of Zhengzhou metropolitan area.In this paper,a reasonable evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity is constructed,and entropy weight method and coefficient of variation method are used to determine the index weight,Then the comprehensive bearing capacity of each city is calculated by using the comprehensive index method,and the comprehensive carrying capacity of Zhengzhou metropolitan area is analyzed and evaluated from two dimensions of time and space.By constructing the coordination degree model,the coordination of the subsystems in each city of Zhengzhou metropolitan area and the coordination between the city and the city are obtained.Then the comprehensive carrying capacity of five cities in Zhengzhou metropolitan area in 2020 was predicted by constructing the grey prediction model GM(1,1).Finally,according to the short plate factors which restrict the comprehensive bearing capacity of Zhengzhou metropolitan area,some suggestions are put forward,which can provide some reference for the sustainable development of Zhengzhou metropolitan area.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Through the comprehensive index method,the paper constructed the urban comprehensive capacity index model of Zhengzhou metropolitan area,analyzed the changing trend of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in 2000-2015 years,and the results show that: the overall carrying capacity of five cities in Zhengzhou metropolitan area is not high,except for the Xinxiang in the study period,the comprehensive bearing capacity of the other four cities showed a steady increase.(2)This paper analyzed the urban comprehensive bearing capacity of Zhengzhou metropolitan area from two dimensions of time and space,and obtains the spatio-temporal evolvement of urban comprehensive bearing capacity in Zhengzhou metropolitan area.Urban comprehensive bearing capacity of Zhengzhou metropolitan area is positive development type in the research range,except that the comprehensive bearing capacity of Xinxiang City is fluctuating forward development,and the comprehensive bearing capacity of the other four cities is positively developing;(3)By constructing the coordination degree model,the paper analyzed the coordination between the urban internal subsystem and city and city in Zhengzhou metropolitan area,and the results show that the coordination degree is increasing steadily.However,the short board factors which restrict the urban comprehensive carrying capacity in different time periods are different,and the bearing capacity of each city subsystem has obvious fluctuation at different time nodes(4)Through the obstacle model,the paper forecasted the comprehensive carrying capacity of Zhengzhou metropolitan area in the 2020,the result shows that the comprehensive carrying capacity of five cities in Zhengzhou metropolitan area is promoted,which indicates that the capacity of urban area has great improvement and the city has great potential for development.