Research On The Impact Of Consumer Credit On The Stability Of Economic Growth

Nowadays,the global economy is weak,while the domestic economy is also facing excess capacity and inventory,and the economy urgently needs transformation.However,investment and export,which are the two carriages driving economic growth,are also insufficient.Therefore,expanding consumption to stimulate economic growth is an important focus of our country.Through combing the relevant classical consumption theory and economic growth theory,we find that consumption has an important impact on economic growth.However,there are still some problems in consumption growth: firstly,the contribution of total consumption expenditure to GDP in China is lower than that in countries with the same level of development;secondly,the regional and urban-rural development of consumption level and consumption structure is unbalanced;thirdly,the role of consumer credit in stable economic growth and high-quality development is insufficient.In the process of economic development,certain regional differences can promote the rational and effective allocation of resources,but too large consumption gap is not conducive to further economic development and social harmony and stability.Moreover,with the in-depth development of China's economy,the income level of residents has rapidly improved,and the level of consumer demand has changed significantly.The focus of consumption has shifted from basic needs of clothing and food to higher levels of consumer demand such as housing and automobiles.However,these high-level consumer demand often has the characteristics of large amount of money and long consumption period.It is difficult to meet it only by residents' self-accumulation or private lending in the short term.The development of consumer credit plays an important role in expanding consumption,stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic growth.Many scholars at home and abroad have also carried out relevant studies on it,and affirmed the positive impact of consumer credit.However,previous studies focused on the impact of consumer credit on consumption or economic growth,neglecting the impact on the stability of economic growth.With the re-emphasis on "six stability" in the 2018 Economic Work Conference,it shows that the word "stability" will always run through the future economic work,and consumer credit,as an important financial tool,will influence the stability of economic growth.Sound is worth studying.Based on the research of other scholars on the stability of economic growth,this paper divides the stability of economic growth into three evaluation indicators: output fluctuation,price fluctuation and employment fluctuation,and makes theoretical analysis on the mechanism of consumer credit's effect on output fluctuation,price fluctuation and employment fluctuation respectively.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)As far as output fluctuation is concerned,consumer credit shadow Speaking of price fluctuation,the increase of consumer credit means that more money is put into the market,which provides a monetary basis for the rebound of inflation,which is unlikely in the short term,but will inevitably bring about a crisis in the long run;(3)in terms of employment.In terms of fluctuation,consumer credit can promote consumption and bring about the growth of demand.The growth of aggregate demand will alleviate the problem of overcapacity,thereby reducing unemployment.On the other hand,consumer credit can upgrade consumption,which will directly and indirectly affect employment.Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of consumer credit on the stability of economic growth,and based on the existing data in China,this paper makes an empirical study by establishing a FAVAR model.Firstly,the evaluation index of economic growth stability is calculated,then the weight of each basic index is determined by the method of entropy weight,and the stability index of economic growth is further calculated.Considering that the calculation results of traditional VAR model are difficult to fully reflect the real situation of macroeconomic operation,a more scientific factor augmented vector autoregressive model(FAVAR)is used to analyze consumer credit and each base.Through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of this index and the stability index of economic growth,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)Consumer credit in the first phase has a positive disturbance to industrial fluctuations,and then gradually declines,reaching the lowest value in the second phase,and then began to rise and fall,the whole response process lasted for 12 periods,and began to stabilize in the twelfth phase.Gradually converge to the equilibrium state;(2)Price fluctuation has a positive response to the disturbance of standard deviation of consumer credit policy,the first stage is the highest,the second stage is the lowest,then gradually rises,then begins to show a weak negative response,and gradually converges to the eighth stage;(3)Employment fluctuation has a sharp decline in the impulse response to consumer credit.The trend of slow growth to convergence shows that the impact of consumer credit on employment fluctuation is not obvious at the beginning,but then it becomes larger;(4)At the beginning,consumer credit has a negative impact on the stability of economic growth,and then rises.At the second stage,the impact reaches its highest value,then gradually decreases,and at the seventh stage,it begins to stabilize and gradually increases.Convergence to 0;(5)From the results of variance decomposition,consumer credit can explain the changes of some sub-indicators,indicating that consumer credit has a certain impact on the fluctuation of economic indicators,and the path of impact on the stability of economic growth is also practical.Finally,based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,combined with China's actual situation,taking into account some of the current deficiencies of consumer credit,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations,mainly as follows: First,we must actively play the role of the government in the development of consumer credit.Create a good environment for consumer credit development,guide residents to rational consumption,and promote the development of green consumer credit;second,we must urge financial institutions to continuously improve China's consumer credit structure and moderately control the scale of consumer credit;third,change the traditional consumption concept of residents and increase expectations income.