Research On Cross-Border E-Commerce Third-Party Payment Pattern 2.0,Based On Exchange Rate

Since the “8.11” exchange reform in 2015 and the “renminbi entering the basket”,the RMB has ended its unilateral appreciation for many years and has started two-way fluctuations.In the year of 2015 alone,the exchange rate against the US dollar fell by 6%.In 2016,the international situation changed suddenly,the global economy began to recover gradually,and the Fed also entered the stage of shrinking interest rate channels.The global currency release tide began to fade,and the market turned tight.The Brexit,the failure of the Italian referendum and other international political black swan,has further increased the uncertainty of the international market.By the second quarter of 2017,the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar began to strengthen,and by the end of the year,the RMB appreciated against the US dollar by 6%.It shows the "strong" of the renminbi.In January 2018,the central parity of the Renminbi against the US dollar further appreciated by about 3%,and the nominal currency of the Renminbi rose by about 3.3% on the spot.However,since mid-February,the RMB exchange rate suddenly jumped,and the speed was amazing.The day fell to 2000 bp,the exchange rate directly fell below the market psychological barrier of 6.6.Since then,the "jump" of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has wiped out all the gains since the beginning of last year,depreciating by about 16% from the beginning of the year.Unpredictable exchange rate fluctuations have quickly cast a shadow over the development of cross-border e-commerce in China.In recent years,China's cross-border e-commerce import and export scale has expanded year after year,from only 29 trillion yuan in 2013 to 76 trillion yuan in 2017,achieving leap-forward growth.However,traditional cross-border e-commerce is accustomed to the stability of the previous RMB exchange rate trend,lack of psychological attention to the sudden fluctuations and preventive measures,resulting in many cross-border e-commerce sellers facing exchange losses,resulting in profits decline.For example,the 2017 semi-annual report showed that 1,228 listed companies suffered losses due to exchange rate changes,and 16 losses even exceeded 100 million.The accumulated losses of all enterprises reached 58.9 billion yuan,compared with 20.98 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year.More than doubled,this shows that cross-border companies are not enough to prevent exchange rate fluctuations in the international market.In this paper,cross-border e-commerce is discussed in depth through a combination of research literature,case analysis and empirical testing.First of all,it sorts out the domestic and foreign literatures on cross-border e-commerce,third-party payment and foreign exchange risk over the years,and studies the intersection of the three on the basis of absorbing the research results of predecessors.Then this paper introduces the operation mode and advantages and disadvantages of traditional cross-border e-commerce third-party payment,pointing out that ignoring exchange rate risk is a common problem of traditional third-party payment platform,and on this basis,innovatively proposed cross-border e-commerce third-party payment 2.0 The model,that is,the exchange rate management is included in the original payment framework,and then a real case is given.Finally,this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of using foreign exchange derivatives to hedge foreign exchange risk.On this basis,it critically points out the shortcomings of the 2.0 model and suggestions for improvement.The shortcoming of this paper is that it only studies the foreign exchange risk in cross-border transactions,but fails to fully consider other factors affecting the development of cross-border e-commerce.