The Impact Of Rmb Exchange Rate Changes On China’s Export Of Cross-border E-commerce

One of the important factors influencing the development of China’s foreign trade is the change of the RMB exchange rate.In the era of"Internet+",with the rapid development of China’s cross-border e-commerce,China’s traditional foreign trade model is changing.Then for the cross-border e-commerce export trade in the new situation,how does the change of RMB exchange rate affect China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade?Based on the data of DHgate platform,this paper links the change of RMB real effective exchange rate with China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade volume,and mainly studies the following two questions:First,how does the change of RMB real effective exchange rate affect China’s cross-border e-commerce commodity export trade volume?Second,how does the change of RMB real effective exchange rate affect China’s cross-border e-commerce export to different countries?First,the paper draw some theories and previous articles to illustrate the mechanism of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on cross-border e-commerce export.Then,the paper selects the monthly export trade volume data of DHgate cross-border e-commerce from August 2015-December 2017 to analyze,based on panel data model and multiple regression model,Hausman test,F test,Granger causality test and so on.The results show that the RMB real effective exchange rate changes will affect China’s cross-border e-commerce export trade.Granger causality test further indicates that the growth rate of the real effective exchange rate of RMB with the 2^ndlag period has a significant predictive effect on the growth rate of the commodities export.However,the impact on the export volume of major categories of commodities is unstable,which is reflected in the differences among major categories of commodities.The RMB real effective exchange rate changes also have impact on China’s export trade to counties.The growth rate of the RMB real effective exchange rate and the 3^rdd lag period of it both reflect the significant negative correlation on the countries’export trade volume of high income group.However the impact of it on high-income groups and low-income groups export trade volume is not very significant.Finally,the conclusions are drawn and some recommendations are proposed.