The Research On RMB Regionalization In The Perspective Of The Economic Impact

The US subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2008 caused global economic turmoil.At the same time,it also exposed many shortcomings in the current international monetary system with the US dollar as the core.After the crisis broke out,countries gradually began to turn to find more reliable currencies.To avoid risks,at this time to improve the international status and role of other currencies,reform the current "dollar hegemony" of the international monetary system,and gradually realize the "de-dollarization" process can help to maintain the stability of the international monetary system,thus achieving global The stability of the economy is long-term development.The good performance of China in this crisis has won the general favor of many countries,especially Asian countries,which provides a rare opportunity for the renminbi to implement internationalization.Under this circumstance,grasping the strategic opportunity of "One Belt,One Road" is particularly important for promoting the internationalization of the RMB and deepening the process of opening up to the outside world."One Belt and One Road" covers more than 60 countries and covers a wide area.It plays an important role in the global trade map.The regionalization of RMB is a necessary stage for the internationalization of the RMB.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the RMB to achieve its key areas in the "Belt and Road".The status of the dominant currency,through the first regionalization of the renminbi,and then the regional countries as a breakthrough and radiation range,and ultimately achieve the goal of internationalization of the renminbi is more realistic.Based on the theory of optimal currency area,this paper introduces the theory of symmetric shock to judge the income and cost of joining the same currency area by analyzing the symmetry of economic shock between different economies.The higher the correlation coefficient between the economies,the more it proves.The more symmetrical,the lower the cost of joining the same currency area.This article takes the countries in Asia and Oceania along the "Belt and Road" as the radiation range of RMB regionalization,and adds the yen and the US dollar as a comparison.Based on the situation when the euro zone member states establish the euro zone,the total import and export trade of each country is selected.The real variables of domestic real GDP,real effective exchange rate,and consumer price index are used to construct an SVAR model for empirical analysis.The symmetry correlation of economic impacts of various economies in the region is compared to determine the possibility of RMB becoming the key dominant currency in the region.Sexuality,and finally concluded that although the conditions for RMB regionalization in the region are not completely necessary in comparison with the euro zone countries,compared with the US dollar and the Japanese yen,the renminbi is highly relevant to some countries in the region.The dominant currency in the region has a relatively large advantage,and the process of regionalization of the renminbi can be carried out first as a breakthrough in some sub-regional countries in the region.