Monetary Policy,Bank Market Structure And Real Estate Price

The healthy development of the economy under the "new normal " must not only expand consumption and domestic demand,but also prevent economic risks caused by sharp fluctuations in house prices.At present,the overall growth rate of China's real estate industry funds has gradually declined since reaching a high level in 2016,but the investment quota has maintained a steady growth rate during the same period.The 2018 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out:To build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market,government should consolidate the main responsibility and improve the housing market system and housing security system.In views of this,this paper takes "Monetary Policy,Bank Market Structure and Real Estate Price" as the research object,and uses 30 provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2017 to build PVAR model,uses impulse response function to analyze the impact effect of each influencing factor fluctuation on real estate price,and then studies the impact effect of each influencing factor on real estate price.This paper analyzes the influence of bank market structure on monetary policy and real estate by moderating effect.Combining the results of empirical regression with theoretical mechanism analysis,this paper discusses the mechanism of banking market structure.The quantile regression method is used to describe the distribution characteristics of the impact of bank market structure and monetary policy on real estate.This paper uses the dynamic system moment estimation model to further compare and analyze the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices,and the impact of bank market structure on the relationship between monetary policy and real estate prices.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,during 2005-2017,the dynamic response of China's real estate price to the influencing factors of monetary policy is quite different in response direction,response intensity and response speed,and each influencing factor has different impact effects on China's real estate price.The impact of real estate price on itself is positive in the short term,and tends to be flat in the long term.The impact of money supply on real estate prices shows a short-term positive impact,with a fluctuating trend in the medium term and a gradual disappearing effect in the end;the impact of interest rate on real estate prices shows a large negative impact in the short term,with a small negative impact in the medium term,with the change of the period,the negative impact effect gradually weakens and tends to zero.The impact of credit scale on real estate prices is negative in the short term,but positive in the medium and long term.The impact of money supply,interest rate and credit scale on the real estate price is of timeliness.The impact of bank market structure on real estate price is small.Using the method of variance decomposition,we can conclude that the real estate price has a greater impact on its own,the money supply,interest rate,credit scale will have an impact on the real estate price,and the money supply and credit scale will have a greater impact on the housing price.The direct influence of bank market structure on real estate price is weak.Secondly,Through the quantile regression,money supply has a significant positive effect on real estate prices at all quantiles.With the increase of quantiles,the impact of money supply on real estate prices tends to weaken.With the increase of quantile,the regulatory effect of bank market structure on money supply and real estate price is weaker.Interest rate adjustment has a significant effect on real estate prices.At the middle quantile,interest rate has a greater impact on real estate prices.With the increase of quantile,the market structure of banks has a strong regulatory effect on interest rates and real estate prices.Credit scale has a significant positive effect on real estate prices.At the middle quantile,credit scale has a greater impact on real estate prices.At the middle quantile,the market structure of banks has a strong regulatory effect on credit scale and real estate prices.Using the method of sample cutting,considering the regulatory effect of bank market structure,money supply has a positive impact on real estate prices,and this positive policy effect gradually increases with the improvement of bank market structure.Credit scale has a positive impact on the real estate price,and the positive policy effect shows a steady rising trend with the improvement of the bank market structure.From 2005 to 2017,money supply is positively correlated with real estate prices.The more centralized the market structure of banks,the more positive relationship between monetary policy and real estate price fluctuation,that is,the ability of monetary policy is to control the real estate price fluctuation.The adjustment of interest rate will affect the real estate price,and the market structure of bank has little effect on the adjustment of interest rate.Credit scale is positively correlated with real estate price.The more concentrated the market structure of banks,the better relationship between the credit scale and the real estate price fluctuation.The final conclusion of regression using dynamic panel moment estimation is basically the same.Money supply and real estate price have a significant positive effect.The adjustment of interest rate will significantly affect the real estate price.Increasing the scale of credit,the real estate price increases.No matter for interest rate or credit scale,the change of bank market structure will affect the relationship between interest rate or credit scale and real estate price.The concentration of bank market structure is conducive to promoting the relationship between interest rate,credit scale and real estate price,and increasing the regulatory power of monetary policy.