Research On The Path Of Agricultural Development In The Evolution Of Dual Economic Structure

The report of the 19th National Congress clearly pointed out that the issue of agriculture,rural areas and peasants is the essential issue concerning the livelihood of the people.The issue of solving the three rural issues must always be the top priority of the work of the whole party.Therefore,in this realistic context,this paper studies the issue of agricultural development in China.The article briefly expounds the theory of dual economic structure in foreign classics,and on this basis,the domestic scholars' research on the dual economic structure of China.It explores the formation process and characteristics of China's dual economic structure,and analyzes the impact of dual economic structure on agricultural development.At the same time,under the background of dual economic structure,the endogenous factors affecting agricultural development are systematically analyzed,namely rural labor transfer,deepening of agricultural material capital,deepening of rural human capital and advancement of agricultural technology.Using the 2003-2017 national time series data to establish a VAR model,through co-integration test and variance decomposition,etc.,to analyze the dual economic structure,rural labor transfer,agricultural material capital deepening,rural human capital deepening and agricultural technological progress for agricultural development influences.Using panel data from 2003 to 2016,the PVAR model was established in the eastern,central and western regions,and the rural labor transfer,the deepening of agricultural material capital,the deepening of rural human capital,and the agricultural labor productivity were carried out through Granger causality test and variance decomposition test.The dynamic interaction between the effects was systematically studied.Through theoretical analysis and empirical research,the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The dual economic structure has a significant negative effect on agricultural development;the deepening of agricultural material capital,the deepening of rural human capital,the transfer of rural labor and the advancement of agricultural technology have Significant positive effects;(2)In the eastern region,rural labor transfer,rural human capital deepening and agricultural technological progress have contributed greatly to agricultural development.Rural human capital deepening has contributed greatly to the deepening of agricultural material capital,rural labor transfer and agricultural technology.Progress has contributed a lot to the deepening of rural human capital;(3)in the central region,rural labor transfer and agricultural technological progress have contributed more to the deepening of agricultural material capital;(4)in the western region,agricultural material capital deepening and agricultural technological progress to agriculture The contribution to development is greater,and the deepening of rural human capital has contributed greatly to the transfer of rural labor in the eastern,central and western regions.Therefore,based on the research results of the article,the following suggestions are proposed:(1)to dilute the dual economic structure caused by historical reasons,to promote population urbanization and promote county economic integration;(2)to implement the rural revitalization strategy unswervingly;(3)Different agricultural development policies are implemented in the three major regions of the eastern,central and western regions to improve agricultural comprehensive productivity.The eastern region should focus on increasing investment in human capital and agricultural technology such as education and skills for agricultural practitioners;the central region should increase investment in agricultural production infrastructure and agricultural technology advancement;while the western region needs to increase agricultural materials.Capital investment,improve the basic quality and vocational skills of agricultural laborers,attach importance to the advancement of agricultural technology,and accelerate the non-agricultural transfer of rural surplus labor.