The Measurement And Analysis Of China's Export Trade Effect On The "Belt And Road" Countries

The proposal of the "One Belt and One Road" initiative is consistent with the current internal and external environment including the slow development of the world economy,the transformation and upgrading of domestic economy.Gao Hucheng,the minister of Commerce,believes that "economic and trade cooperation is the foundation and precursor of OBOR cooperation,it is necessary to be carried on.So what is trade to the countries along the belt and road?How about the promotion of establishing a comprehensive pattern of export trade in China?The answers to these questions will help to test the implementation of the concept of OBOR and we can find the answer through the test of trade effects.This paper studies the impact of the "one belt and one road" initiative on China's export trade to the one country and the other countries,as well as the trade changes before and after.By analyzing RCA index and TI index of China and OBOR countries,we can observe the trade structure,which also can illustrate the trade effect.In addition,the gravitational model analysis part establishes the expanded gravity model and uses the trade volume between China and OBOR countries,combined with the analysis method of panel data,to study the trade effect brought by the proposal.On the basis of background introduction,literature review and trade pattern analysis,this paper makes an empirical analysis of trade effects.Literature review includes achievements of existing research results,but also summarizes the existing articles and finds that the empirical analysis of the trade effects of the countries along the route is less.Also studied a large number of literature on the analysis of trade effects,to seek the basis for the model of empirical analysis.The analysis of China's export trade pattern is carried out in three parts:the overall,subregional and trade structure.The empirical research uses the extended gravitational model that incorporates variables such as population,market openness,dummy variables,per capita GDP difference,etc.It concludes that:(1)The "One Belt and One Road" initiative has expanded the export trade effect of China,trade complementarities is strong,and trade links are becoming more and more close;(2)the result proves economic size,population scale,market openness,per capita GDP difference boot the effect,but distance and whether the OBOR countries join the EU are negative influences;(3)the trade potential of 27 countries has been brought into full play,most countries lack trade with China,which should be accelerated cooperation to increase trade effect.Therefore,how to increase the export trade effect of China on the exports to OBOR countries,how to increase China's exports to these countries by expanding the economic aggregates of China and OBOR countries,reducing trade costs,improving trade structure,and strengthening cultural communication to increase China exports to OBOR countries is worthy of consideration.There are six parts in this paper.The first part is the introduction,which shows the background and significance of the topic,research methods and main contents,and points out the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper.The second part is the related trade theory and related research literature review and brief evaluation.The third part mainly studies the basic pattern of China's export trade to these countries.The fourth part is to measure the export trade effect through the RCA index and TI index.The fifth part is gravitational model analysis.The sixth part is a summary of the full text analysis,and the corresponding suggestions according to the previous empirical analysis.