Research On The Relationship Between American International Tourism And Service Trade Based On MS-VAR Model

Nowadays,trade in services has been developing rapidly all over the world in intermational economy.The proportion of trade in services in world trade has been increasing,and the role of trade in services has become increasingly prominent.The level of development of trade in services has gradually become an indispensable indicator of a country,s economic status.Tourism is an important part of trade in services,and it is also the fastest growing one.It is a response to the call of globalization in the world economy.As a major service trade country in the world,the United States has maintained a trade surplus and ranked first in the world in the past ten years.Since Trump took office,the Sino-US trade war has been full of ups and downs.The United States has listedChina as a competitor in the National Security Report,the National Defense Strategy Report,the Presidential Trade Policy Agenda and the National Security Strategy Report.The analysis of the interaction between Sino-US tourism and Sino-US service trade is one of the bases for formulating outbound tourism policies.Based on the data of tourism revenue and trade in services between China and the United States from 1999 to 2017,which explores the interactive relationship between outbound tourism and intermational trade in services by using MS-VAR model and econometric analysis.This study draws the following conclusions through empirical analysis:the US export service trade data to China and the cyclical fluctuation of China's tourism income to the United States are synchronized;the cyclical process of the fluctuation of China,s export service trade to the United States and the overall fluctuation of U.S.tourism income to China shows a cyclical state of alternate expansion and contraction;China's export service trade to the U.S.tourism income to China has a cyclical state of expansion and contraction.There is a stronger dependence;trade in services and international tourism have a certain pulling role.Through these eonclusions,we ean know that there is a certain mechanism for the development of international tourism and trade in services.How to absorb the experience of the United States and realize the driving role of tourism in intermational trade in services is a problem that needs further consideration in the development of tourism in China.In conclusion,there are some suggestions to the study as below:lerning from the experience of the United States to enhance the competitiveness of China's tourism service trade;expanding tourism image publicity to show the feelings of big powers;giving full play to government functions and improving China's tourism service trade policy.On the one hand,various political and diplomatic means are used to guarantee the trade in tourism services between countries.On the other hand,through the tourism service trade policy to safeguard national interests,to protect the overall economic,political,diplomatic and security interests of the country,to achieve the fundamental goal of national participation in international economic and political affairs,and to safeguard the overall national interests.