Study On The Impact Of "The Credit Funds From The Virtual To The Real" On The Risk Of Funds Idling Inter-bank Business Of Commercial Banks

Since 2008,China's commercial banks' inter-bank business has repeatedly innovated and gradually evolved into an important channel for shadow banks to conceal non-standard assets,resulting in a large amount of inter-bank business funds idling within the financial system,causing the funds moving from the real to the virtual in a certain extent,and the mode of operation of the internal circulation causes risks hiding behind banks.The development of inter-bank channel business has distorted the bank's fund allocation,which is reflected in the fact that shadow banks crowd out the conventional credit share,and the scale of non-standard assets is rotating between various subjects.In addition,the operation mode of channel business is complex,and its natural attributes such as maturity mismatch and credit conversion increases the concealment and uncontrollability of capital operations.In addition,the high profitability of the channel business has contributed to the bank,s idle arbitrage motives,making it difficult to cure the idling problem.In 2014,Premier Li Keqiang asked to return the virtual credit funds to the real for the first time.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore the policy of“the credit funds from the virtual to the real" to alleviate the effectiveness of the risk of inter-bank business.This paper focuses on the impact of the implementation of the policy of "the credit funds from the virtual to the real" on the risk of funds idling inter-bank business in China's commercial banks.Firstly,it reviews and summarizes the relationship between domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between interbank business and bank risk,as well as the relevant research results of the characteristics and causes of economic "deviation from reality".Secondly,it sorts out the development process of interbank business in China's commercial banks,and concludes that funds are idling in the same industry.The formation mechanism of the business analyzes the risks of the inter-bank business of the fund volatility from the theoretical level,and analyzes the change of the scale of the inter-bank business before and after the policy of "the credit funds from the virtual to the real",and puts forward the research hypothesis;on this basis,select the data samples of 50 commercial banks including state-owned commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks,city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in 2008-2018,and use the dynamic panel system GMM model to test the risks of funds idling inter-bank business in three steps and the impact of the policy of "the credit funds from the virtual to the real" on the risk of funds idling interbank business of commercial banks in China.The empirical results show that:Firstly,the expansion of the scale of funds idling inter-bank business has significantly increased the risk of banks.The specific performance is that the increase in the probability of bank risk will increase by 3.7 for each additional unit of the size of the investment in resale financial assets and receivables;Secondly,the policy of "the credit funds from the virtual to the real"can alleviate the risk of funds idling inter-bank business,and compared with the four major state-owned commercial banks,the policy of the credit funds from the virtual to the real" mainly affects the risk of inter-bank business of other banks;Thirdly,the policy of "the credit funds from the virtual to the real" is lagging and has short-term effects.In the long run,the single implementation of this policy cannot completely solve the idling of interbank business funds.The problem also requires the cooperation of other policies of the financial regulatory authorities;Finally,through theoretical analysis and empirical test,sum up the research conclusions,and put forward policy recommendations from the government,enterprises and commercial banks,in order to play a positive role in ensuring the smooth operation of the financial industry and promoting the development of the real economy.The supplementary work done by this paper on the research of existing inter-bank business includes:Firstly,it focuses on the impact of the scale of capital vacancy inter-bank business on the risk of commercial banks,compared with the previous studies of inter-bank business and risk,the choice is more targeted.Secondly,on the basis of the original inter-bank business risk research,combined with the policy environment of“the credit funds from the virtual to the real",study the impact of the ';the credit funds from the virtual to the real" policy on the risk of funds idling inter-bank business,which has certain practical significance for mitigating the problem of a the credit funds from the real to the virtual" at present.Thirdly,from the perspective of bank heterogeneity,it analyzes the reasons for the differences in the responses of different banks to the policy of "the credit funds from the virtual to the real".