Sustainability Analysis Of Large Public Projects Based On System Dynamics

As a large-scale public project with a large scale of construction and a wide range of influence,it not only maintains the production and life of our society,but also serves the public and has a wide range of social influences.However,it also has many problems such as large investment scale,waste of resources,low utilization rate and high operating cost,which affects the sustainable development of buildings.Therefore,it is extremely urgent to provide a systematic solution to the sustainability of large-scale public projects and to provide solutions to the above problems.While ensuring that large public projects make outstanding contributions to the economy and society,it is crucial to reduce energy consumption,waste of resources,reduce environmental load,and reduce carbon emissions.Based on the theory of sustainability and system dynamics,this thesis establishes a sustainable simulation model for large-scale public projects,systematically studies the sustainability of large-scale public projects,and conducts empirical research on the established simulation models.Firstly,the environmental dimension,resource dimension,energy dimension and socio-economic dimension are selected as the sustainable subsystems for the study of large-scale public projects.Secondly,the systematic causal loop analysis is carried out on the factors affecting each dimension,and the sustainable stock of large-scale public projects is established.Flow chart,select the empirical project to verify the model,and verify the energy consumption level and carbon emissions of the project under different scenarios through multi-scenario analysis;determine the project in different situations through the sustainable evaluation indicators of large public projects.The state of sustainability,and draws the conclusion:(1)large-scale public projects as a complex coupled system,the internals of which are combined by a variety of factors,the study of its sustainability can not be studied from a single dimension,so It is not enough to effectively evaluate the sustainability of large public projects.Instead,it should study the results of its interaction under multiple coupling conditions from a multi-dimensional perspective.(2)Through the simulation analysis of the empirical project and based on the scenario analysis method,three scenarios of different variables in the model are assumed and simulated and analyzed.In terms of energy dimension,the energy structure has a significantly higher impact on energy consumption than energy saving.The impact of levels on energy consumption.Under the environmental dimension,the degree of influence of the greening level and energy structure on carbon emissions is studied.From the simulation map and the sensitivity analysis chart,it is concluded that the influence of energy structure on carbon emissions still plays a major role.In terms of resource dimension,through the simulation analysis of waste,it is concluded that waste has less effect on energy consumption and environmental impact.In terms of social and economic dimensions,investment and technology investment should be increased to improve the economic benefits of the project.At the same time,the functional and service capabilities of the project should be emphasized,and the public's demand for large-scale public projects should be fully considered.Therefore,in order to improve the sustainability of large-scale public projects,we should start from promoting energy quality,improving the economic benefits of the project,and fully considering the public's demand for large-scale public projects.This paper establishes a multi-dimensional high-order stock flow model,analyzes the simulation effects of different variables on environmental dimensions,resource dimensions,energy dimensions and sensitivity analysis is the innovative part of this paper,and applies the established system dynamics model to the actual case.To achieve the sustainability of large public projects.However,as a complex system with many influencing factors,large public projects can still incorporate other dimensions or some incentives to improve the model when constructing models and performing simulation analysis.There are also many difficulties and challenges.It also presents opportunities for research in the sustainable sector of large public projects.