Study On Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emission And Control Strategies In Gansu Province

In recent years, the world economy has been rapidly developed, especially as the largest developing country of China, accompanied by economic environment and energy problem began to constant threat and interfere with people’s life.It is smog problem that one of the most serious problem, there is no doubt that carbon emissions has become the inevitable trend of economic development. In this context all countries home and abroad began to study how to meet the current economy does not fall under the premise of low carbon road as far as possible, keeping environment and economic sustainable developmentGansu which is a western leading province of economic development progress fece and subside in the environmental problems.In this paper, the author refer to the historical data of gansu province, analysis the current situation of economic and social development, the energy consumption situation, as well as industry and key energy consumption industry present situation of carbon emissionsAt the same time the author use vensim software to establish the system dynamics model of carbon emissions peak of gansu province. In this paper, the model can be divided into eight systems. First using the data from 2001-2005 to:simulate the data of 2006-2014, through the historical inspection prove that the actual data keeps the simulation data in consistent. In view of the system dynamics model of the key factors affecting, the author use the scenario analysis method set up eight different scenarios.They are the scenario of fast> middle, end, fast middle, fast end, middle fast, middle end, end middle. Key factors mainly reflected in the level of economic development, energy consumption structure (the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption), industrial structure (the proportion of secondary industry, the proportion of the tertiary industry), low carbon policy and technical aspects (energy efficiency)、 population. The author set up different values for these factors and different development trend of gansu province in the future. The author use veimsim computer to simulate and predict the peak of eight different scenarios of carbon emissions. The results show that the peak time of carbon emissions in gansu province is between 2028-2045, the size of the peak is between 209.1 million tons-429.35 million tons. The carbon emissions size from 2015 to 2050 of Gansu province is between 6.4046 billion tons-11.50329 billion tons.The results show that the peak value under different scenarios solution development and the emergence of time there is a big difference. In quick mode and the mode compared with economic development at the expense of slow, slow, fast, slow in more conducive to the economic and social development of Gansu province, compared with the expense of the environment in fast mode and fast, fast in terms of more help to the practice of carbon reduction in gansu province.