Research On Risk Evaluation Model Of Real Estate Trust Project Based On Comprehensive Scoring Method

In the daily operation of the trust company's real estate business,the investment decision of a single project is the core link and work.The internal investment and financing decision-making process of the trust is extremely complicated,and it needs to go through the links of project establishment,adjustment,investment decision,lending,post-investment management,etc.Therefore,the decision-making speed and quality of a single project has become an important empirical indicator to measure the customer's financing experience,which directly affects the core competitiveness of the trust company.Establishing a real estate trust risk assessment model to calculate various risks of a single real estate trust can provide a comprehensive reference for trust business investment decisions,and directly determine the effectiveness of investment decisions,improve the efficiency of the exhibition industry,and reduce default losses.Through the establishment of a quantitative model,the single real estate trust business is quantitatively scored,and the fuzzy decision-making method of the original qualitative expert voting is changed,which facilitates the trust company's approval and approval of the single real estate trust,the batch approval,and the batch approval.The problem is to make scientific decisions to avoid the entry of non-performing assets,thereby reducing default losses.Doing a good job in risk assessment and management will help the trust company to make accurate assessments,make scientific decisions,shorten the approval cycle,improve decision-making efficiency,enhance the transparency of the entire transaction process,greatly enhance the reputation of financing customers,and increase customer cooperation.The rate and efficiency of the exhibition industry can also indirectly increase business income.In recent years,with the rapid development of the real estate industry,traditional bank funds cannot meet the financing needs of real estate companies.Judging from the rising proportion of trust loans,real estate trusts have become the second largest financing tool for housing companies except banks,and have become another important channel for rapid development in recent years.With the explosive growth of real estate trust business,related risks are slowly gathering.More and more theoretical and financial stakeholders are paying attention to real estate trusts.Therefore,quantitative research on real estate trust risk assessment is important for trust companies and real estate companies in China.The practical significance.The model described in this paper is a tool model that is closely related to the actual risk assessment needs based on the investigation and analysis.The model uses the risk logic tree methodology to disassemble the real estate trust risk factors around the three core risk assessment dimensions of project self-repayment,counterparty and collateral,and introduces the methodology of the comprehensive scoring method into the assessment and calculation of complex risks.The evaluation of this complex problem has been standardized,and accurate measurement of single project risk assessment has been achieved.Now the model is summarized into a document,and it is hoped that it will play a certain reference for the risk management workers in the industry.This model can be used to make a reasonable assessment of the risk of a single project of real estate trust.It is expected that the risk assessment model will be promoted and used,which can really help the trust.The company's real estate trusts improve risk management.This thesis is divided into six chapters.Firstly,it introduces the background of this paper,and then introduces the content and significance of the research.Then it introduces the status quo and methods of risk management research,and the excellent experience that other financial industries at home and abroad can learn from,as the theoretical basis for the analysis and solution of the paper's follow-up questions.On this basis,the risk logic tree and the comprehensive scoring method are used as the methodology to construct the risk assessment model.Finally,the model test and promotion methods are expounded.The specific content of this article is arranged as follows:The first chapter Introduct that based on the growth trend of real estate trust over the years,this chapter combines the financial risks brought by the soaring real estate prices as the background,demonstrates the significance of this study,and then outlines the use of the combination of microscopic,normative and empirical,quantitative Combined with qualitative research methods,the paper concludes that the overall research framework of this paper is divided into six chapters,and the innovations and shortcomings are briefly described.The second chapter is literature review.The research object is defined as real estate trust,and the related basic concepts are defined.Then it introduces the status quo and mainstream methods of financial risk management,credit risk management,real estate credit risk management and real estate trust risk management research,which lays a theoretical foundation for the subsequent problem solving.The third chapter is about the status quo and problems of real estate trust risk management.It mainly introduces the characteristics and risk categories of real estate trusts,and analyzes the status quo and problems of real estate trust risk assessment models.Through investigation,it elaborates that the main risk categories of real estate trusts are market risk,credit risk and liquidity risk.The various problems and causes of real estate trust risk assessment are described in detail,and the trust is summarized.The stage risk assessment model mainly relies on the expert analysis method of the business review committee to decide whether to put the project on or not.The analysis method is pure qualitative analysis,the analysis dimension only focuses on credit risk,the analysis standard is difficult to unify,and there is moral hazard.These questions establish the status quo for the construction of the risk assessment model.The fourth chapter is the excellent experience of real estate trust risk assessment.Mainly by analyzing the domestic and foreign banking and foreign REITs evaluation practice of real estate credit risk,it is concluded that the risk assessment of real estate trust can learn the comprehensive evaluation method of bank credit and REITs,and draw on the internal rating method and the five-level classification method.The results of model analysis and subjective judgment,and improve the quality of risk assessment through daily real-time monitoring and continuous optimization of models,and lay the optimization direction for the construction of risk assessment model.The fifth chapter is the construction of real estate trust risk assessment model.It is the core of this paper.Firstly,it introduces the principles and methods of model construction,the steps and precautions of model construction,and carries out in-depth analysis on the types of real estate trust risks,and determines the three core risks of project self-repayment,counterparty and collateral.Based on the core assessment dimension,31 secondary and tertiary risk factors are subdivided and the relevant weights are assigned to form a risk assessment model,which finds a solution to the fundamental problem of risk assessment.The sixth chapter is the effect test and promotion suggestions of the risk assessment model.Through the data and case form,the practical effect of the model was tested.The model of the PAY Trusted AY Miyun project was used as a case to simulate the feasibility of the model.The actual cooperation of the PA Trust Company in 2017 was 68.The project is a sample,and the actual default of 2019 in these samples is used as empirical data to verify the effectiveness of the decision-making recommendations of the risk assessment model.Finally,the application scope and application suggestions of the model in practice promotion are proposed.Mechanisms,establishment of tracking and evaluation mechanisms,establishment of firewall mechanisms,establishment of confidentiality mechanisms,etc.