Study On The Demand Of Commercial Long-term Nursing Insurance In Henan Province

At the end of 2007,the total population of people aged 65 and over in Henan Province was 7.47 million,accounting for 7.6% of the total population.Henan has entered an aging stage.As of 2018,the total number of people aged 65 and over in Henan Province has risen to 10.19 million,an increase of 2.72 million from 2007,accounting for 10.6% of the total population,which is an increase of 3% from 2007 The degree of change is continuing to deepen rapidly,and the problem of long-term care for the elderly population is becoming more and more serious.Along with the aging phenomenon,the demand for commercial long-term care insurance of Henan residents will increase significantly.From the perspective of domestic research review,domestic scholars mainly focus on qualitative research on long-term care insurance demand,while quantitative research is relatively small,and lack of quantitative research on commercial long-term care insurance demand.Based on this,this paper makes a quantitative study on the demand of commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province.Using padis-int population prediction software,this paper first predicts the number of disabled population in Henan Province from 2020 to 2050.The prediction results show that the number of disabled population in Henan Province will reach 1.04 million by 2050.Based on the predicted number of the disabled population,the long-term care cost demand of Henan province from 2020 to 2050 is calculated.By adopting the three grades model of high,medium and low,the long-term care cost demand of Henan province is predicted to be: high-grade 322 billion 200 million yuan,medium grade 239 billion 200 million yuan and low-grade 130 billion 800 million yuan by 2050.According to the prediction results of long-term care cost demand in Henan Province,the demand of commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province is predicted based on different social system environment.At the same time,according to the theory of economics,this paper forecasts the fund raising of long-term care insurance in Henan Province,and then comes to theconclusion that the demand of long-term care insurance for residents in Henan Province can be met by the commercial long-term care insurance.Even if the government does not provide financial subsidies at all,the commercial long-term care insurance can also raise enough funds.This shows that in the face of the strong demand for long-term care insurance in Henan Province,commercial insurance companies have enough motivation to meet the needs of the people.According to the current situation of the development of commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province,combined with the prediction results of the demand for commercial long-term care insurance,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the development of commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province.In theory,this study enriches the content of quantitative prediction of regional commercial long-term care insurance demand.In a practical sense,this paper studies the current situation of commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province,and makes a quantitative prediction of the demand for commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province.Combined with the analysis of the existing problems of commercial long-term care insurance in Henan Province,it puts forward relevant suggestions to help solve the long-term care problems faced by residents in Henan Province.