The Influence Of Monetary Policy On The Price Of Commercial Housing In China Under The Background Of Urbanization

In 1998,the housing system reform with the core of stopping the distribution of housing and implementing the monetization of housing announced the end of the housing welfare system in China,and the domestic housing market began to enter the era of commercial housing in an all-round way.However,due to the lack of relevant institutional measures in the development of China's real estate market,the problem of structural supply and demand has not been effectively solved,resulting in the phenomenon of housing bubble becoming more and more serious,which has affected people's happiness and sense of gain.For a long time,the government has been issuing various policies and measures to achieve the goal of stabilizing house prices.The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly puts forward the guiding ideology of no speculation in housing.As an important macro-control means,monetary policy has played an irreplaceable role in promoting the stable operation of the real estate market.In recent years,China's urbanization development level has also been improved rapidly,which promotes the development of China's commercial housing market.However,subject to the differences of urbanization development levels in different regions,monetary policy has an obvious regional effect on the price of commercial housing.The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of monetary policy changes on the market price of commercial housing under the background of Urbanization.Firstly,we review and summarize the relevant literature research at home and abroad,and clarify the research ideas and methods.Secondly,on the basis of defining the related concepts of monetary policy and urbanization,this paper combs the transmission mechanism of monetary policy affecting house price,and makes a theoretical analysis of the regional effect of monetary policy affecting house price under the background of urbanization.Then we start from the demand market and supply market of commercial housing,summarize the current situation of the development of commercial housing market in China under the background of urbanization in recent years,and review the changes in the price of commercial housing market in the previous adjustment and control process of monetary policy.In order to deeply analyze the difference of monetary policy's effect on housing price regulation under different urbanization development levels,we take 22 cities in the first,new first,second and third tier cities as the research samples,and conduct empirical research by collecting relevant data of each city in average sales price of commercial housing,monetary supply,interest rate,loan balance and urbanization development.Firstly,the scores of urbanization comprehensive development level of selected sample cities from 2000 to 2018 are measured by principal component analysis,and then the measurement results are taken as threshold variables to establish a panel threshold model of the impact of monetary policy on the market price of commercial housing.Through the threshold effect test and model regression analysis,the paper believe that:in different areas of the comprehensive development level of urbanization,there are differences in the direction and extent of the impact of interest rate changes on house prices,and there are differences in the extent of the impact of money supply changes on house prices.That is to say,under the background of urbanization,the influence of monetary policy on the market price of commercial housing has regional effect.Based on the above research conclusion and analysis,this paper holds that in order to realize the effective control of monetary policy on house prices under different urbanization background and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market,we should improve and perfect the financial system of the real estate market as soon as possible,promote the multi-level and flexible application of monetary policy,and carry out monetary policy control in accordance with different situations in different regions.We should steadily promote the reform process of interest rate marketization in China,so that the transmission mechanism of interest rate regulation of housing prices can be effectively played.We should promote the balanced development of new urbanization with high quality and solve the structural contradiction between the supply and demand of commercial housing market.We should strengthen the risk management and supervision and control of financial institutions,reasonably guide the flow of loan funds of banks,and better promote the development of the real economy while reducing the real estate financial risks.