Research On The Influence Of External Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Global Value Chain Status Of China's Manufacturing Industry

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to promote China's industry to move towards the middle and high end of the global value chain,accelerate the construction of a manufacturing power,and accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing industry.However,in today's world economic environment,the rise of external environmental challenges has become the most uncertain factor,in which economic policy uncertainty is the main performance.In the context of the uncertainty of external economic policies,it is an important issue to study how to improve the status of global value chain(GVC)in ChinaThis paper makes a theoretical analysis and empirical test on the influence mechanism of the uncertainty of external economic policy on the status of China's manufacturing global value chain.Based on the data of 14 manufacturing industry segments in China from 2000 to 2011,using the method of Koopman et al.(201 0)for reference,the GVC status index of each industry segment is calculated.Based on the national level economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2016),the external economic policy uncertainty index reflecting the industry heterogeneity is further constructed,and the external economic policy uncertainty index is empirically tested the influence and mechanism of China's manufacturing industry's global value chain statusBoth theoretical and empirical analysis show that:(1)The uncertainty of external economic policy restrains the promotion of China's manufacturing industry's global value chain status;(2)The main channels of the uncertainty of external economic policy restrains the promotion of China's manufacturing industry's GVC status are industry investment and export.Further empirical research also shows that:the impact of external economic policy uncertainty on the global value chain status of different types of industries is heterogeneous,especially for high-tech industries,industries dominated by parts trade and industries with high proportion of foreign investment;improving technology efficiency can alleviate the negative impact of external economic policy uncertainty on the status of China's manufacturing global value chain.On this basis,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the aspects of reducing the impact of external economic policy uncertainty,tapping the internal potential of manufacturing industry and formulating differentiated industrial policies.