Study On The Impact Of New Urbanization Process On Urban Housing Price Fluctuation

Since the reform and opening up,urbanization has provided a good guarantee for the rapid development of social economy.However,its traditional development mode has triggered a series of urbanization problems,which has led to increasingly prominent social contradictions.Urbanization needs to change the development concept and development mode.Against this background,the central government put forward the embryonic form of new urbanization for the first time in the report of the 16 th national congress,that is,"follow the path of urbanization with Chinese characteristics" to promote the coordinated and orderly development of large and medium-sized cities and small towns.Since then,the concept of a new type of urbanization has gradually swept across the country.As the first coastal open city in China,the location of the market is superior and the social economy is relatively developed provides favorable support for the development of new urbanization.During the fourteen years from 2005 to 2018,the urbanization rate of the permanent population in the city rose from 54.53% to 73.67%,an increase of nearly 20%.The average price of residential sales rose from 3466 yuan/square metre to 12373 yuan/square metre,an increase of 260%.The rapid development of new urbanization has accelerated the speed of agricultural population transfer and led to the rapid growth of urban population,thus promoting the prosperity and development of urban housing market and pushing up the price of urban housing.At the same time,the continuous rise of urban housing prices has brought tremendous pressure to the lives of urban aborigines and new residents,and reduced the living standards and quality of life of urban residents.How to ensure that urban residents can "live in a house" in the process of promoting new urbanization,adhere to the orientation of "housing does not stir-fry",stabilize the abnormal fluctuation of urban housing prices,and promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and urban housing prices is an urgent issue to be solved.In reference to the literature study and absorb the reasonable components,based on the formed article main research content: the first part,based on Qingdao new urbanization and the development of urban residential market analysis,on the one hand,from the population,industry,economy,analysis on the development status of new urbanization based on land urbanization and urban living environment;On the other hand,from an architectural perspective,investment,sales,construction cost and housing price of the urban housing market,this paper analyzes the development status of the urban housing market,and predicts the future development prospect and change trend of the new urbanization and urban housing price.In the second part,by constructing the correlation analysis chart of different indicators and urban housing price under the decomposition of new urbanization,the influence mechanism of single factors such as population,industry,economy and comprehensive factors on urban housing price is theoretically analyzed.The third part,from the perspective of new urbanization affects urban housing prices is constructed the main evaluation index system,using system dynamics method to build the new urbanization system model of the impact of urban housing price,the simulation to predict urban housing prices,urban housing supply and demand trends,and through the system dynamics model of policy simulation experiments,analysis urban residential property prices of new urbanization decomposition under the sensitive degree of different regulation such as population,economic policy,to provide accurate basis for the government to formulate effective policies.Based on the perspective of new urbanization,taking the market as an example,using the methods of system dynamics and statistics,this paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the influence mechanism and influence degree of different factors on the urban housing price under the decomposition of new urbanization.Theoretical analysis shows that :(1)urban population,floating population,Qingdao GDP,per capita GDP,urban and rural per capita disposable income,primary output value,secondary and tertiary industries,urban per capita living area,urban per capita green area and urban residential price Positive correlations have a significant impact on the fluctuations in urban housing prices.(2)Different age groups have slightly different effects on urban housing prices,especially in the 20-35 age group.Higher education groups have higher income level and stronger purchasing power,which are important factors to promote the rise of housing prices.(3)There is a close nonlinear relationship between land price,land agreement price,the price of "land auction",the park area per capita,the per capita urban road area and the urban housing price,and the impact on the urban housing price is slightly different.Empirical analysis finds that:(1)The fluctuation of housing prices in cities and towns is remarkably abnormal,with the fluctuation of GDP,urban per capita income,the output value of the first,second,third industry,the land price and the per capita living space of urban areas being increased by 10% or 10%.(2)The influence of GDP,per capita income of cities and towns,output value of first,second,third industries,land price and per capita living space of cities and towns on urban housing prices has a certain lag effect.(3)The results of comprehensive policy simulation experiment consisting of urban population and land price show that the simultaneous reduction of urban population and land price has significant effect on restraining urban housing price.