Study On The Temporal And Spatial Pattern Evolution And Scenario Prediction Of Rural Settlements In Baoding

The study of temporal and spatial pattern evolution and prediction of rural settlements is an effective way to depict the past and future development footprints of rural settlements.China's rural reform began in1977,and with the implementation of the "Rural Revitalization"strategy in 2017,rural endogenous development power has been constantly excavated.As the core area of rural production and life,the internal evolution of rural settlements and the related research of evolution driving mechanism are related to the further activation of rural endogenous power.The change of land use pattern of rural settlements affects the transformation of regional land use structure and its function.So,it is an important means to analyze the policy influence by setting situation to simulate and predict the evolution trend of rural settlements.Baoding,an ancient historical and cultural city with a population of more than ten million,is located in the heartland of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,accompanied by Beijing,moreover,there is a great many of rural population in Baoding,and it has a long time for the development of rural settlements.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze the historical track of the development of its villages in depth,so as to reasonably guide the development of rural settlements in Baoding.In this paper,Baoding was taken as the research area,according to the temporal and spatial distribution data of rural settlements in the medium-long time scale(1980-2018),the research duration was divided into seven time points.Through the FRAGSTATS platform and GIS spatial analysis technology,this paper respectively used the methods of spatial rhythm measurement index,Average Nearest Neighbor index,Voronoi diagram variation coefficient calculation,Kernel Density Estimation and Quantitative analysis of gravity transfer to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of rural settlements in Baoding in different periods,furthermore,it also analyzed the natural and socio-economic factors that affect the evolution of the spatial pattern of rural settlements in Baoding.Finally,on this basis,using the software of CLUE-S,set up different development scenarios to predict the evolution trend of rural settlements in 2025 and 2030 respectively.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the view of landscape rhythm index,the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of rural settlements in Baoding are as follows:On the scale,the the growth rate of total patch area and the average patch area of rural settlements was 57.86%and 26.71%respectively,and the spatial scale expansion was obvious;On the shape,the index values of each shape representation were increasing,the growth rate was between 7.72%?13.11%,indicating that the shape of rural settlements was irregular and complicated;On the distribution,the combination,connectivity and aggregation of rural settlement patches were enhanced,and the rural settlement patches showed a large-scale centralized distribution trend.Through the spatial analysis of GIS,rural settlements were remained clustered distribution mode;Within the scope of the county,67%of the counties(districts)were in the mode of cluster distribution,the rest were in the mode of random distribution,and the uniform distribution mode no longer existed;In terms of distribution density detection,the city's average density increased to 9.67/km2,and the high-density area continued to expand;The change of the center of gravity reflected the direction of the overall movement of rural settlements.The detection results showed that rural settlements gradually moved and gathered to the urban center of Baoding.(2)The evolution of temporal and spatial pattern of rural settlements in Baoding was mainly influenced by topography,location and economic and social factors.In particular,the terrain was not only the basic condition of for the formation of rural settlements,but also the factors that restricted the change of rural settlements;The influence of river,road and town location factors on the size distribution of rural settlements in a certain range was significant,and this influence gradually attenuated with the increase of distance,but had little effect on the shape of rural settlements;The economic and social factors belonged to the stable force of the development of rural settlements,and the influence on the evolution of rural settlements was complex,in which fixed assets investment was the persistent factor that drives the evolution of rural settlements.(3)Based on CLUE-S model,the precision of simulating rural settlements evolution was 81.73%,and the precision of simulation was high.The forecast results of rural settlements in 2025 under the natural development situation show that the rural settlements in Baoding will be mainly spatial expansion without any policy intervention,and the scale is expected to expand 29105 hm2,and the Kernel density estimation of rural settlements will rise to 10.017 pieces per square kilometers.However,with the combination of ecological protection and economic development,the number and scale of rural settlements will greatly reduce by 2030,the size of rural settlements decreases by 80231 hm2,the number of patches in rural settlements decreases from 19489 to 16970 in 2018,and the average nuclear density of rural settlements decreases to 7.910 pieces per square kilometers.The forecast results of two different scenarios show that under the accelerated urbanization and the general trend of rural population transfer to cities and towns,the development of rural settlements in Baoding in the future should carry out policy intervention,focus on controlling the scale of rural settlements and rationally guiding the scientific layout of rural settlements,so as to avoid the encroachment of cultivated land and forest land resources caused by blind growth.