Study On Spatial Correlation And Spillover Effects Of Economic Developments In Gansu

With the continuous development of regional economic development strategies such as urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas,the role of spatial factors has become more important in the process of economic development.Since China's reform and opening up,the economy has developed rapidly,but discordant regional economic development is becoming more and more serious.From the perspective of regional and industrial associations,inland China economic development has become an important issue for domestic and foreign scholars to study how well it can promote regional economic development.The economic development of a region will not only be affected by its resources such as Factors,industrial structure,will also be affected by other factors from surrounding areas.This kind of interaction in the economic development space will have an important impact on the spatial structure of regional economic development.In this context,the article will take the county economy of Gansu Province as the research object,and explore the spatial economic linkage and spillover effects of Gansu Province from a spatial perspective.It is important to implement regional linkage and farm out to develop a regional economic strategy and expand a new pattern of economic development for Gansu Province.Based on the "center-periphery" theory,the growth-end theory,the cyclic cumulative causal theory,the "core-periphery" theory,and the "point-axis system" theory,the article will select the panel data of 87 counties in Gansu Province from 2002 to 2017 and divided Gansu into Hexi region,Longzhong region,Long Southeastern region,and plateau marginal areas.Using MATLAB,ArcGis and other software,author will set up a spatial weight matrix and using ESDA method to test the spatial correlation of county economies empirically to determine Whether there is a spatial correlation.Further,the article will construct a spatial econometric model,and select indicators such as capital input level,human input level,industrial structure,and urbanization rate to study the influencing factors of counties economic development in each region.The spatial regression partial differential method will be used to decompose spillover effects and it will be decomposed average direct effect,Average indirect effect and average total effects of each variable.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,the results show that:(1)The Moran's I index of per capita GDP was significantly positive in Gansu Province from 2002 to 2017,indicating that there is a spatial correlation in the county economy.The LISA agglomeration chart shows the specific location of the different situations of Gansu's economic spatial correlation,and it can be found that the economic development of Gansu Province presents a "west high east low" spatial economic structure,and there is a club convergence phenomenon;(2)Spatial regression estimation results show that the spatial autocorrelation coefficient is significantly positive,and indicates that there is a spillover effect in the process of economic development in space area.The decomposition of the spillover effect can be used to obtain a more realistic estimate of the coefficient.(3)Through decomposing the spillover effect,the results shows that county development is not only affected by its own factors,but also be effected by some factors in the development of surrounding counties.The spillover effect will promote or inhibit the county's economic development,that is,it will produce a diffusion effect or an echo effect.This reminds decision makers that the spatial effect cannot be ignored when formulating an economic development strategy,and it should also be taken the economic development of the surrounding areas and the factor resources into account.(4)through replacing the spatial weight matrix,spatial measurement regression results are basically and consistent with the above empirical part,and indicates that the estimation results are robust,and that it can be found that the spatial spillover effect of the county economy is mainly reflected in adjacent counties in Gansu Province,and economic relevance is significant but not obvious for counties with similar distances.The article proposes that it is necessary to emphasize the spatial effect,play a role to the spillover effects of various channels and factors,and propose to strengthen the county economic connection in the development of county economy.The article has put forward some suggests that promoting economic linkage development,and planning capital investment to adapt to local conditions,and accelerating urban development rely on rural revitalization strategies,optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure and development of characteristic industries,and speeding up the reform of county-level government agencies,and strengthening the government's efficiency functions with a view to providing a theoretical basis for promoting county-level economic development.