A Study On The Influential Factors Of Chinese Agricultural Exports To Mongolia

With the development of economic globalization and regional economic integration,economic trade between China and Mongolia have been developing.Since China proposed the Belt and Road initiative in 2013 and launched the idea of building a China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor,China-Mongolia cooperation in economy and trade has been further strengthened.Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries,the scale of agricultural trade has increased year by year.The author found that China’s agricultural products exported to Mongolia are mainly concentrated in category 0(food and live animals),category 1(beverages and tobacco),while category 2 except chapters 27 and 28(non-edible raw materials)and category 4(animal and vegetable oils,fats and wax)is relatively less concerned.The author studies China’s agricultural exports to Mongolia and explores the factors that affect China’s agricultural exports to Mongolia,which will help promote China’s agricultural exports and help achieve trade balance between China and Mongolia in agricultural exports.The thesis starts with a review of the history of the development of the trade of agricultural products between China and Mongolia,and the author analyzes the characteristics of agricultural products exports from China to Mongolia.Then the export scale of agricultural products and the structure of export commodities are calculated and conducted on both total level and product category level.the revealed comparative advantage index(RCA index),the trade complementarity index(TC index),the trade integration degree(TI index)and other indexes are used to carry out detailed analysis of the products with two-digital code of category 0 agricultural products in SITC(REV.3).The author found that China’s comparative advantage over Mongolian on category 0 agricultural products is obvious and has been rising since 2011,but the comparative advantages of various types of agricultural products in category 0 are extremely unbalanced.The trade complementarity of agricultural products in category 0 between China and Mongolia has declined since 2006 and the trade integration of agricultural trade between China and Mongolia is relatively high.At the same time,China’s total agricultural exports to Mongolia have increased year by year,and its growth rate is higher than that to other country all over the world.However,the export structure of agricultural products is single.The export of agricultural products from China to Mongolia is susceptible to short-term risks.The export of agricultural products from China to Mongolia is excessively concentrated in category 0 products,so the export commodity structure is unreasonable.Next,on the basis of above analysis,the author uses the extended trade gravity model to analyze the agricultural products exports from China to Mongolia,which exports of supply and demand,the factors influencing the exchange rate and so on has carried on the empirical analysis.The empirical study found that Mongolia’s GDP and China’s per capita agricultural value added had a promoting effect on China’s agricultural exports,while the exchange rate had a inhibiting effect.Finally,in light of the above research conclusions,the author proposes following suggestion:China should strengthen the government’s governance efficiency and continuously strengthen the agricultural cooperation between China and Mongolia;China should further enhance the export competitiveness of agricultural products and enhance the quality of agricultural products;China should adjust the structure of export commodities and enriches the variety of agricultural exports;China should improve the ability to respond to risks and resist risks.In this way,the agricultural exports from China to Mongolia will be in-depth and continuous.