The Development Trend And Risk Prevention Of China's Regional Construction Environment From The Perspective Of David Harvey's "secondary Cycle"

In recent years,China has rapidly promoted infrastructure construction and investment in fixed assets.The scale of the construction environment has rapidly expanded,which has triggered discussions in various sectors of society on the risk of expansion of the “construction environment”.Harvey pointed out that the "construction environment"(ie,the secondary cycle)represented by infrastructure construction would over-accumulate when the productive sector(ie,the primary cycle)grew weak and may trigger macro financial risks in the theory of the "three-level cycle of capital".Most of the discussions on the scale,structure and potential risks of the construction environment are from the perspective of supply and demand.The analysis conducted in the framework of political economy is more qualitative and less quantitative.From the perspective of Harvey's "three-level capital cycle" theory,this paper makes a quantitative analysis of this proposition and conducts an empirical test on the risk of excessive accumulation in China's construction environment.This paper takes the economic data of 31 province-level regions in China from 2002 to 2017 as a sample.Based on the analysis of the current situation,this paper first tests the proposition that excessive accumulation of primary cycle leads to a large inflow of capital into the secondary cycle.The conclusion shows that the scale of China's primary cycle and secondary cycle has changed in the same direction,and the capital spillover condition pointed out by Harvey is not valid in our country,which reveals that China's socialist economic system and capitalist economy are essentially different.However,from the perspective of growth speed,when the growth speed of the secondary cycle increases,the growth rate is higher than the growth speed of the primary cycle;when the growth speed of the secondary cycle decreases,the decrease rate is lower than the growth speed of the primary cycle,thereby increasing the proportion of the secondary cycle.This shows that in the relative sense of structure,China may have potential risks as Harvey said.On this basis,this paper uses OLS and fixed-effect models to test the relationship between economic growth and the structure(structural index)of the secondary and primary cycles by the state and financial institutions.The conclusion shows that the expansion of the secondary cycle relative to the primary cycle has a negative impact on economic growth,and the strength of the state and financial institutions has a role in promoting the growth of the structural index.Further,this paper uses the threshold effect model to test the impact of the scale and relative structure of the secondary cycle on economic growth.The conclusion shows that the total construction environment in China is still insufficient,but there has been an excess on the scale of the primary cycle.This is due to the lack of effective supply of the construction environment and the weak growth of the productive sector.Based on the above analysis,this paper believes that although China is different from capitalist economic growth,a phenomenon similar to Harvey's has also appeared in the field of construction environment.Based on the above analysis,this article believes that although China is different from capitalist economic growth,a phenomenon similar to Harvey's has also appeared in the field of built environment.Harvey's exposition on the risk of excessive capital accumulation is of great significance for China to prevent and resolve structural risks and avoid economic fluctuations.China should further strengthen the regulation of infrastructure construction and real estate construction,ensuring the stable operation of the economy from three aspects which involve the development of the real economy,the construction environment and financial reform.