Analysis On The Determinants Of Vietnam Coffee Export

Vietnam is the second largest exporter of coffee in the world,only after Brazil.Despite the remarkable development of Vietnamese coffee industry in recent years,it's also worth noting that Vietnamese coffee export sector has many challenges to face with.The economic and social factors in the world in general and in Vietnam in particular changed the business environment,consequently leading the fluctuation in coffee exporting.This raises the questions about the level and position of Vietnam coffee export in the world market as well as what would be the determinants of the changes in Vietnamese coffee export performance,and how to improve the trade efficiency in coffee exporting sector.The answer for these questions has an important practical significance not only for policy-makers but also for coffee producers and exports to propose solutions for boosting Vietnam coffee export.In this research,based on the International Trade theories including Comparative advantages and international competitiveness and findings from a larger number of representative researches,the author analyze,summarize and systemize the factors affecting export performance of agriculture products,especially coffee.This helps to build a base for identifying the determinants of Vietnam coffee export.This study utilizes Muti-variate Regression Model with yearly dataset of period 1998-2015 and VAR/VECM with monthly dataset of period from 2004:1 to 2017:12 to investigate the impacts of some factors on the Vietnamese coffee export volume.The findings in this study confirmed coffee production,GDP,economy openness of Vietnam,the Christian population as well as Vietnam population have positive effects on Vietnam coffee exports with coefficient of 1.06,0.21,1.35,8.99 and 19.74,respectively.The price of Vietnam coffee and Brazil coffee have effects on Vietnam coffee export in both short-run and long-run and the previous month deviation from long-run equilibrium is corrected in the current period as adjustment speed of 3.1%.In the long run,price of Vietnam coffee,and the price of Brazil coffee have positive effects on Vietnam coffee exports,on average,ceteris paribus.The oil price and exchange rate have no effects on Vietnam coffee exports in short-run but they are believed to have impacts on Vietnam coffee exports in long-run.Exchange rate has positive effects on Vietnam coffee export volume.In contrast,price of oil have negative impacts on Vietnam coffee export volume,on average,ceteris paribus.In order to improve Vietnam coffee export volume,the Vietnamese government and coffee export companies need to work closely together to promote Vietnam coffee production and exports.The government should propose legal framework and policies to support enterprises to reduce production costs,increase production efficiency,enhance the competitiveness of Vietnam's coffee exports,and improve the total volume and value of exports.