System Simulation And Forecasts For Sustainable Development Industrial City In The Context Of New-type Urbanization

Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has clearly put forward the new-type urbanization,the key task of our country in the new period is to take the high quality urbanization road with Chinese characteristics.China's industrialization and economic continues to rapidly develop with the continuous development of urbanization,but it also has brought serious ecological and environmental problems to the development of the city in this process.Such as irrational industrial structure,serious environmental pollution,widening gap between urban and rural areas and lack of water resources,these problems seriously constrain the sustainable development of the city.Liuzhou as a traditional industrial city,with the automotive,machinery and metallurgical three pillar industries.And the development of these industrial enterprises will consume a lot of resources,industrial waste will also cause serious damage to the ecological environment.Besides,a series of problems of environmental degradation,resource shortages,industrial structure imbalance are prevalent in industrial cities.Therefore,the study of the sustainable development of Liuzhou can provide reference for the development of other industrial cities in China.This paper first analyzes the theory of regional urbanization,the theory of sustainable development and the theory of human relations system,and then expounds the connotation of new-type urbanization and the connotation of urban sustainable development.At the same time,it introduces the research status from the domestic and foreign scholars on the urban sustainable development of the system control model and predictive evaluation.Based on the above theoretical basis,this paper systematically analyzes the sustainable development of industrial cities and discusses the operation mechanism of sustainable development system.And then,combining with the regional,population size,industrial structure,and industrial structure,economic growth and ecological environment development status of Liuzhou City,build a system dynamics simulation model.Based on the model of validity test,the total population size,economic development,water supply and demand situation and environmental management of Liuzhou City were forecasted.The four development models were set up by changing the control variables,and the simulation results were obtained.The harmonious development will help Liuzhou to achieve sustainable development,and policy suggestions were put forward from three aspects.First,optimize the industrial layout and accelerate the development of productive services;second,increase investment in environmental protection to build a new Dragon City;third,strengthen infrastructure construction and conserve water resources.