Research On The Impact Of Factor Endowment Structure Changes On The Price Fluctuation Of Primary Agricultural Products

In the context of globalization,a variety of important agricultural products,including wheat,maize,soybean,cotton,peanut,and rapeseed,faced with a more complex and volatile situation,have experienced sharp price fluctuations and turns.As an important part of the price system,the prices of agricultural products is related to all aspects of social life and even the stable operation of the national economy.In the agricultural production process,the accumulation of various factors and the growth rate will lead to changes in the factor endowment structure,and will affect the price of agricultural products through various channels.Therefore,analyzing the price fluctuation characteristics of major agricultural products in China and the changes in the endowment structure of the main producing areas,and further studying the relationship and internal mechanism between the two are of great and far-reaching significance for stabilizing agricultural product prices and promoting the healthy development of agricultural economy.Based on the existing literature and theory,this thesis uses data from the main production areas of six major agricultural products such as wheat,maize,soybean,cotton,peanut,and rapeseed in the year of 2002-2018,to study the impact of changes in factor endowment structure on price fluctuations.Firstly,this thesis analyzes the fluctuation of producer price of different primary agricultural products from the general and regional perspectives,and uses the variation rate,fluctuation period and some basic statistics such as mean,range,standard deviation to study the characteristics of price fluctuations.Secondly,this thesis compares the calculation methods of the capital deepening coefficient,the resource endowment coefficient,and the factor structure index.On the basis of this,the factor structure index is selected to quantitatively analyze the factor endowment structure of the six major agricultural production regions.Finally,the factor endowment structure and other important factors are included in the econometric model.This thesis uses the fixed effect model to regress the six kinds of agricultural products,and empirically analyzes the influence of each factor on the price fluctuations of different major agricultural products.The results show that:(1)On the whole,the producer prices of wheat and maize are relatively close in time,and the fluctuation trends of peanut and rapeseed are largely consistent.The fluctuation pattern of soybean is similar to that of oil crops in the early stage,and is close to that of grain crops in the middle and late stages,and the fluctuation of cotton is more frequent and violent.In terms of different regions,there are obvious differences in the prices of primary agricultural products between different regions.The mean and standard deviation of producer prices in the main grain producing areas are lower than those of cotton,peanuts and rapeseed.(2)In the relative proportion of labor,land,and capital inputs,the proportion of land factors is always high,and the proportion of capital factor inputs is lower than labor and land in most cases.There is consistency in the input structure of agricultural products with the same attributes.The fluctuation of the capital structure index of various agricultural products is more obvious,and the land structure index is relatively stable.In most cases,the labor force and land structure indexes have the same trend,while the capital structure index has the opposite trend.(3)The increase of labor factor input and land factor input has a significant inhibition effect on the price of agricultural products,the effect of capital factor input on the price of different agricultural products is uncertain,and the impact of the affected area,population,and the income of residents on the producer prices of agricultural products is significantly positive.Finally,based on the conclusions of the study,this thesis puts forward some countermeasures to improve the regulation system of agricultural product price and promote the sustainable increase of farmers' income: Increasing the general service support and reducing the production cost of agricultural products.Promoting the optimization of factor structure and implementing differentiated strategies.Guiding farmers to make scientific decisions and improving the utilization efficiency of production factors.