Analysis Of The Influence Of BGA's "Source Point" City On The Housing Prices In The Surrounding Areas

In recent five years,countries continuously for regional strategic planning is committed to the development of a large bay area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA),plans to make the international first-class bay area and a world-class city.Issued in February 2019,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development planning outline is put to the outlook period in 2035.This will no doubt for GBA's economic development have a huge boost.At the same time,the real estate industry is the pillar industry of China's economic development,and the fluctuation of housing price has an obvious implication for the economic development of a region.After the new round of policies and strategies are released,it is bound to have a certain impact on the housing price of GBA.This article main research content is placed within the GBA house price fluctuations on the spatial dependence and ripple effect of exploring study of house prices in the area of spatial correlation and the ripple effect of conduction path,and the effects of the ripple effect of source point city is analyzed,and explore the source point of city economy,the influence of price index of population change on the affected area.Is first carried out for GBA housing the exploration of spatial autocorrelation,mainly divided into two aspects.One is the global spatial autocorrelation analysis,through GBA to verify the large bay I space has strong positive correlation of the price of the house.The second is through the local spatial autocorrelation,explore and global spatial autocorrelation properties of different cities or areas.Secondly,through the theoretical analysis and literature,GDP,population,population migration amount,per capita disposable income,area and the completion of real estate investment as explanatory variables.And to adjacent,distance,economy and population,respectively,as a spatial index weights,nine of GBA inland city housing spatial econometric model is established.Depend on the effect of large bay house prices space more in line with the conclusions of spatial lag model,and compares the explanatory variables under different weighting model and the spatial effect of fitting results.Then,on the basis of the unit and co-integration test for the GBA housing price,granger causality test method to explore the conduction path of the ripple effect in the GBA,find out a total of 15 ripple effect conduction paths,analyze the conduction mechanism of the ripple effect in the research area,and draw the conduction path diagram.Finally,the pulse response function diagram is drawn with Stata 15 software to analyze the impact intensity and duration of ripple effect on surrounding affected areas when the price of “source point” city is impacted.Through comparative analysis of the effect of the same “source point” city housing price fluctuation on different cities,as well as the interaction of each other “source point” city.Then,the granger causality test is conducted to verify the leading and lagging relationship between the economic and demographic indicators of the “source point” cities and the housing price fluctuations of other cities.Through the linear regression model,the paper explores the degree of influence of the changes of different indexes on the housing price in the affected cities.