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The Ripple Effect Of Regional House Prices In China

Posted on:2013-08-01Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C J YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330377454915Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Housing is a basic living demand for residents. In the stage of building a moderately prosperous society, with the development of social’s economic and the improvement of people’s living standard, the incremental demand for urban housing and to improve the demand for dual-strong, is the driving force of sustainable development for the real estate industry. In the coming decades, short supply will be the dominant trend of the real estate market. The real estate industry is not only capital-intensive industry, closely related to basic industries, but also the industry which provide the necessities of life. Since self-housing system reform in China over20years, the living conditions of urban households have significantly improved, the per capita housing construction area has increased from6.7square meters to more than30square meters, housing-based real estate has been one of the pillar industry for national economy. However, the contradictions of the real estate market in recent years have gradually revealed, the most prominent of which is housing prices’soaring. Housing prices have generally been raising and the momentum is very strong in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities. However, because of differences in the geographical conditions and economic development levels, housing prices have only a smaller rate of increase in China’s two and third-tier cities, and the price level there is generally lower than the first-tier cities. There is a huge difference in price fluctuations and levels in kinds of regions in China.There have been a series of macro-control policies, including monetary policy, tax policy and land policy for China’s real estate market. Each government also regular real estate market according to the regulation of the actual local economic and social development in local real estate market, The regulation effects has been gradually apparent for first and second-tier regional’s real estate development. Because of the gradual expansion of Chinese metropolitan regions, the four-tier cities’real estate industry is in a stage of development, the decline of housing prices is less than first-tier cities. Urban real estate’s prices show different growth trend for the reaction of the macro-control due to geographical conditions, economic base. Therefore, for China’s real estate market fluctuations’complexity, the "one size fits all" will inevitably lead to bias. To control real estate market effectively, we must correctly grasp the interaction between the different effects for the regional macro-control policies, and control the market better. Therefore, studying the interaction mechanism of regional house prices in China, namely, the "ripple effect" has great significance.The paper analyzed regional house prices "ripple effect" deeply. It explains existence of regional prices "ripple effect" in accordance with the relevant principles of economics theoretically, as well as specific manifestation of this effect, analyzes the reasons of regional prices "ripple effect" on this basis, and put forward policy recommendations. The empirical analysis of the path as follows:The first is the economic theory about "ripple effect". From describing a balanced four-quadrant model of the real estate market, it lays a foundation for empirical analysis about coefficient heterogeneity characteristic of the ripple effect; then it provides a theoretical basis for the interaction of the ripple effect of housing prices in the city by analysis about urban economics theory of urban spatial structure and its interaction analysis.Second, from the coefficient heterogeneity angle, the paper analyzes whether there is a ripple effect in China’s regional real estate market. It establishes six panel models using35large cities’data to test whether there is the ripple effect and analyzes the national real estate macro-control policies (monetary policy, land policy and tax policy) to the different effects of each regional house prices, and follows by the empirical results obtained explanations and justifications.Fourth, on the basis of the second and third parts, the paper summarizes the main conclusions of it, combines with the actual situation of China’s real estate market, and analyzes the main reasons to produce the ripple effect of regional house prices in China, and makes relevant policy recommendations.The above four steps are layer by layer and progressive interlocking, the paper carries out a systematic study focusing on China’s regional housing price "ripple effect", and obtains the following four important conclusions: First, the deviation of the regional house prices and national price is closed to the stabilized equilibrium value in the long-term, this is in line with the first necessary condition; for the reunification of the country’s financial policy, land policy and tax policy, there are some differences between each regional, ant this phenomenon is in line with the second necessary condition of ripple effect. Therefore, we can think that there are the "ripple effect" of China’s regional housing prices.Second, the effect of tax policy on the regulation of regional house prices is the best, followed by the land policy, the less obvious effects of monetary policy. Tax policy is the most effective policy to control prices. Therefore, the state should further improve and strengthen tax policy, while supporting the use of land and monetary policies, and administrative means in the regulation of the real estate market.Third, eastern and southern areas are relatively developed and most sensitive to tax policy and land policy, while the responses in the northeastern and western regions are little. Therefore, each region government should control prices as flexible as possible according to the different characteristics of each region and use various policies to regulate as much as possible to avoid the phenomenon of "one size fits all".Fourth, the spatial interaction of China’s housing prices is not only because of geographical proximity, but also reflected that diffuse from a higher level of economic development to the city of the western interior. This phenomenon may be caused by the capital flow and information diffusion.Compared with the other articles, the paper has the following characteristics:First, from the coefficient heterogeneity angle, the paper analyzes regional house prices "ripple effect" more comprehensively. People in the past studied the "ripple effect" of China’s regional housing mainly from the perspective of the spatial interaction of inter-city price itself, but didn’t consider about the factors that affect regional prices. This paper from the spatial interaction of the inter-city house prices and the coefficient of heterogeneity, taking into account regional variables on regional house prices influence at the same time, focuses on macro-control policies about the reunification of China’s real estate market (monetary policy, land policy, tax policy) to the regional impact, makes the empirical analysis more comprehensive, science.Second, the paper not only tests the existence of the "ripple effect" of China’s regional house prices, but also analyzes quantitatively the different effects of various policies on the regional housing prices, and compares the differences between each region. The same time, combined with the empirical results, analyzes the reasons for the ripple effect, and puts forward the policy recommendations of the ripple effect under the national macro-control of the real estate market.In this paper, there are still many flaws and shortcomings. First, We should be considered as fully as possible on studying the impact factors of China’s regional housing, including the psychological expectations of the real estate buyers, real estate speculation and other real estate control policy, macroeconomic variables and other factors, but because of lack of time and energy, this article only selects urban per capita disposable income as a regional factors affecting the prices, and considers only the monetary, land and tax policy. This practice may have some deviations. Second, in the study of spatial interaction of the inter-city house prices, this paper only selected house price data of2001-2010, still slightly less than the length of the data; it may lead to inaccurate results. With the data’s rich in the future, I will improve it in order to draw more accurate conclusions. The paper only selects the most representative of six cities in six regions due to lack of data and limited space, and I hope that in the follow-up study, I can study more deeply on spatial interaction of more representative cities.
Keywords/Search Tags:Regional price, Ripple effect, Coefficient heterogeneity, Spatial interaction
PDF Full Text Request
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