China Commodity House Price:Factors And Transmission Mechanism

With the development of China’s economy and the process of urbanization continues, the real estate industry has been rapid development, and plays an increasingly important role in the growth of the national economy. As the real estate boom of the vane, the fluctuations of the commodity housing price has a direct impact on the level of the development of the national economy and living standards.Firstly, the analysis of the various regions of the country’s average price of commercial housing in1998-2010found that the area of commercial housing price growth trend can be divided into five types:the surge, the first stow after the fast, steady growth, volatility and steady growth after first fluctuations.Secondly, the study shows that economic growth pole theory also applies to the real estate market, commercial housing price’s growth is accompanied by economic growth simultaneously polarization and diffusion effect of the price of commodity houses, which will appear in the individual regions. Because of these two effects in the inter-regional flow of capital and labor factors. The ripple effect theory also can be combined with the real estate in four aspects:the population, spatial arbitrage speculation, the transfer of wealth and regional factors. All these factors can influence the conduction mechanism spatial fluctuations of commodity housing prices. In view of1998-2010inter-provincial commodity housing price data space exploration. We found that commodity housing prices in China’s provinces and cities existed positive spatial correlation and spatial distribution of various regions in the country.Finally, on the basis of the price of commodity houses in provincial spatial panel model, we have the following conclusions:the per capita GDP, unemployment rate, per capita disposable income, per capita commercial residential investment and land costs are all the main factors which affect the commercial housing prices. The effects of the unemployment rate, indicating that the labor factor in inter-regional flow changes will largely affect the price of commodity houses. On the fitof the model, the spatial error model is superiorto the spatial lag model, which shows that our area of commercial housing prices are under the influence of the invisible on the space is very large, speculation and capital flows are the main factors of the housing price. In addition, to further focus on the local region, the establishment of space panel error model based on the Jing-Jin-Ji region city panel data, the study found that in some areas, the government action will have a greater impact on the volatility of the price of commercial residential.