An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Chinese Residents' Consumption Changes On The Stock Market

As an indispensable part of the domestic market economic system,the stock market is closely related to people's lives and national economy,and it has a non-negligible impact on the stable growth of the domestic economy.However,as the global economy has gradually become more integrated and the financial market has become more liberalized,it has accelerated China's integration with the global economy,resulting in the continuous expansion of the scope and extent of stock market fluctuations.Once a stock market crisis occurs,it will cause huge losses to investors and the national economy.Therefore,exploring effective stock market forecast indicators and timely warning of possible crisis in the stock market can not only grasp the basic trend of economic development in the macro economy,but also bring many benefits to investors.This article mainly discusses whether the changes in Chinese household consumption are effective for the stock market.The article selects three quarterly data RUPCE,RUPDI and HS300 from 2005 to 2019 as the research object.By establishing the VAR model,and then using Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition and other measurement methods explore the relationship between urban residents 'consumption changes and the stock market.According to China's stock market data,an effective empirical test model is used to test whether the changes in China's household consumption are effective for the stock market.The research conclusion includes the following aspects:First of all,the relevant theories and research literatures are sorted out from the basic theory,and on the basis of understanding the relevant concepts and theories,the article pave the way for subsequent empirical research.Second,the article chooses appropriate research variables and econometric models to conduct empirical research on the relationship between household consumption changes and the stock market.Finally,the empirical results show that: Descriptive analysis of the data shows that the development trends of Hs300,RUPCE and RUPDI are consistent,so there may be some connection between the three;ADF unit root test results show that RUPCE,RUPDI and HS300 are stable time series,and there is no unit root;Granger causality test results show that RUPCE is the Granger cause of HS300,and RUPDI is the Granger cause of RUPCE,so it can be concluded that changes in the income of urban residents affect the changes in consumer spending of urban residents,while changes in the consumption expenditure of urban residents affect the stock market Changes,and there is a link between the stock market and household consumption changes;The impulse response function results show that the CSI 300 Index is most affected by its own,and the change of RUPCE has a more significant positive effect on the CSI 300 Index,and the change in urban household consumption expenditure mainly depends on its income level,so the impact of changes in household consumption expenditure on the HS300 Index has a certain lag,that is,when the urban household consumption expenditure increases,after two periods of lag,HS300 Index appears in the same direction of changes in household consumption expenditure Changes in the consumption of urban residents have a certain ability to predict stock market fluctuations;Variance decomposition shows that the long-term variance decomposition of consumer spending tends to 20.9%,and the long-term variance decomposition of income tends to 5.5%,and the impact of the two on the stock market is lagging.Therefore,the index of household consumption changes is proposed as a monitoring object,and when the index appears inflection point,timely and effective measures are taken to reduce the probability of stock market crisis and the loss caused by the stock market crisis.Figure 10 table 7 reference 54...