A Study Of The Stock Market Crisis Early-Warning System

The stocks market, which is closely related to the people's lives, social stability and economic development, is a capital markets, as well as the national economy, there is a clear cyclical fluctuations in their operation instability, its fluctuations with the time from a high-low cycle, has brought great threaten to the stability of the national economy and its investor's profit, how to analysis and forecast its momentum by an effective scientific method, has become a hot issues to people. Since 2006, and the whole of 2007, China's stock market has substantially rose, along with the index rising, there is a growing controversy about the existence of the stock market bubble risk. Because of the absence of a universally recognized value assessment system, the pace of China's stock market bull market has been intertwined in passion and loss, if only emphasize on the special nature of the market growth, it is clearly not objective, and if only simply compared to the international mature markets, it is also biased. We can not predict when the time the stock market crisis occurs, what we can only do is to measure the possibility of the stock market crisis, and show warning to our regulators and investors.The stock market goes up or down significantly from time to time, which may imply that the national situation economy may speed up or slow down well, in addition to policy fluctuations and human impact of excessive speculation. In order to keep China's stock market healthy and coordinated development, it is necessary to use the modern financial technology to establish a stock market early-warning systems, a regular operation can be carried out at the beginning of warning, by tracking and predicting in the process of emerging crisis described timely, which is in order to take effective measures. Based on the existing research on the theory, this paper introduced the pluralism statistics—Logistic model as a research method, selected the Ml growth rate, growth rate, Huanshou rate, the price-earnings ratio, the amount of turnover growth rate, investmentor growth rate, the index growth rate, the inflation rate—eight indicators to measure the stock market risk profile, selected sample data from January 2004 to May 2008—53 month data, taking empirical analysis, the results showed that:1, Logistic model is conducive to the qualitative analysis of crises in various variables and factors that affected the relationship between them, the early warning indicators used in the paper for the stock market crisis have a certain role in early warning and better-performing model fitting, to a certain extent, it reflects the risk situation of China's stock market.2, The results showed that the price-earnings ratio compared to the rate of macroeconomic GDP growth is to be a good guide in the stock market early warning crisis, from the results of empirical analysis,we can see that from January 2004 to May 2008, particular in 2007 years, China's stock market is almost crazy, which greatly showed that the probability of early warning signals of the crisis.The early-warning on the capital market is an improving and extension to risk management research, by studying the combination of risk factors and the provision of operational early warning analysis and pre-control measures in existing functions, in addition to activities of the monitoring, diagnosis, control, correction of risk management for the future, besides other early warning functions, we may enable the capital market structure to be better and the functions more reasonable.