The Impact Of Foreign Trade On Economic Growth From The Perspective Of Aging

The influence of population structure and foreign trade on economic development has always been the focus of much attention in the field of economics.After the reform and opening up,with the rapid growth of China's population and the overall improvement in population quality,the average life expectancy has continued to increase,the age structure of China's population has changed significantly,and the aging population has continued to deepen,making the original extensive reliance on labor-intensive industries The mode of economic growth no longer adapts to the current economic development model.At the same time,after the reform and opening up,trade imports and exports played a huge role in promoting China's economic growth,which not only promoted the upgrading of technology,management and industrial structure,but more importantly,foreign trade and China's unique "demographic dividend" The combination of "institutional dividends" has generated strong growth momentum.However,with the gradual decline of comparative advantage and latecomer advantage,China's economy has become fatigued.A comprehensive review of the existing development process and experience can reveal that the aging population is affecting China's social and economic development in an all-round way,and this influence also has a clear effect on foreign trade.But up to now,although the research on the relationship between aging,foreign trade and economic growth has been very rich,we still cannot fully investigate and understand the relationship between aging and foreign trade,and the relationship between the two on economic growth.Impact.To this end,this article wants to make extensive research in this area.This paper takes 31 provinces in China as a sample from 2005 to 2017,and first discusses the basic impact characteristics of aging and foreign trade on economic growth.Secondly,it analyzes the synergistic effect of the two on economic growth,and further considers the intermediary transmission mechanism of the effects of aging and foreign trade on economic growth.Finally,from the perspective of spatial econometrics,the spatial correlation and spillover effects of aging and foreign trade on economic growth are examined.The study found that: First of all,aging makes the advantage of demographic dividends that economic growth depends on diminishing,while foreign trade plays an active role in promoting economic growth that cannot be ignored.Second,aging and foreign trade have a clear synergy mechanism for economic growth.As the level of foreign trade improves,the effect of aging on economic growth has gradually weakened.Thirdly,foreign trade promotes economic growth through labor productivity,consumption and human capital levels;however,under the dual negative effects of aging that reduce labor productivity and consumption,economic growth has been impacted.Finally,China's provincial aging,foreign trade and economic growth have significant positive spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects.The increase in provincial foreign trade not only helps promote the economic growth of the province,but also promotes the economic growth of other provinces with spatial relevance through the spatial spillover effect,and aging not only suppresses the economic growth within the province,but also affects other provinces.If the spatial effect is further decomposed into direct effect,indirect effect and total effect,the effect of aging on economic growth is greater than that of foreign trade in the three effects;while the aging of population promotes the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade industry,and foreign trade has an impact on the economy.The positive impact of growth will be strengthened and will promote the spatial spillover effect of economic growth.