Correlation And Matching Of Industrial Structure And Trade Structure

Nowadays,China is in the process of transforming the “extensive” economy into a “high quality” economy.The economic growth rate continues to slow down and the industrial structure needs to be adjusted.At the same time,with the weak global market,the sharp decline in import demand,and the rise of international trade protectionism,China's foreign trade environment is deteriorating.How to break internal and external pressures,resolve overcapacity,optimize trade structure,and then adjust industrial structure to achieve sustainable economic development has become a major issue that needs urgent solution.From the perspective of the correlation and matching of industrial structure and trade structure,this paper examines the interaction between industrial structure and trade structure,regulating mechanism(influencing factors)and evaluation criteria(economic effects)on the basis of measuring the industrial structure and trade structure at the regional level.The main conclusions are as follows:1)China's industrial structure has undergone a significant upgrading process,and China is a major trading country in manufactured goods.The results of subdivided industries show that the structural upgrading trend within the industry is also significant.However,the upgrading of trade product structure is accompanied by the upgrading of "de-processing" process,and the overall performance lags behind the upgrading of industrial structure.At the regional level,the industrial and trade structures in the eastern and western regions show gradient differences.Compared with the industrial structure and trade structure,the east and west have different degrees of dislocation.At the same time,the proportion of processing trade and the proportion of high-tech products trade often have a significant trend of synergistic changes.To sum up the changes of industrial structure and trade structure of 31 provinces and cities,we believe that the trade structure may have a tendency to change from general trade of low-tech products to processing trade of high-tech products and then to general trade of high-tech products with the three industrial structure transformations.2)The results of PVAR research show that there is a significant interactionbetween the industrial structure and the trade structure at the regional level in China.Specifically,the results of the Granger causality test show that the structure of trade products and methods are Granger reasons for the advanced industrial structure,while the structure of advanced industries and the structure of trade products are Granger reasons for the rationalization of industrial structures.Structure is the Granger cause of trade product structure.However,the analysis results of the impulse response function show that the trade mode structure and trade product structure have a negative impact on the advanced industrial structure,but it is conducive to the rationalization of the industrial structure,that is,it is beneficial to the coupling of output and labor.3)The analysis of the influencing factors shows that there is a significant“decoupling” between processing trade and FDI enterprises.Among them,processing trade is a stumbling block to the balanced development of China's industrial structure and trade structure,while the import and export of FDI enterprises generally shows positive effects.In addition,the accumulation of capital,the investment in science and technology and the improvement of human capital can play a positive role in the overall development of the industrial structure and trade structure.4)The analysis of economic effects shows that,overall,the economic effects of the correlation between industrial structure and trade structure at the regional level in China are weak positive effects,and the two do not reflect strong correlation.Economic growth and total factor productivity growth are mainly driven by the coupling of fully utilized labor force and trade in high-tech products.Processing trade and import and export of FDI enterprises are effective ways to promote per capita GDP and total factor productivity.However,the import and export of processing trade and FDI enterprises tend to inhibit the positive effects of the correlation matching between industrial structure and trade structure on per capita GDP and total factor productivity.