Industrial Structure Changes,Housing Price And The Effect Of Economic Growth

Economic growth has always been an important aspect of social development.It's not only an important basis for China to achieve the two centenary goals and pursue common prosperity,but also a basic path to adapt to the transformation of major social contradictions and the "new normal" situation of economic development,and promote the transformation from an economic enormity to an economic powerhouse.Since Deng Xiaoping's visit to the south in 1992,the development of China's real estate market has entered a new era.Now,after nearly 30 years of institutional changes,it has undergone tremendous changes.It has become a pillar industry of the national economy and plays an important role in the promotion of the whole macroeconomic level.Although the "real estate boom" can rapidly promote economic scale expansion in a short period of time,the following economic and social problems increase the uncertainty of future development,forcing us to face up to the role of real estate industry in economic growth and its rationality.Since 2005,industrial structure adjustment has been put on the agenda as an economic measure,and has become a key measure to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of China's economy.The adjustment of industrial structure is an important factor to link the real estate market and economic growth,and the role of this link has been strengthened in the economic development.Therefore,under the background of the increasing downward pressure of economy and the transformation of population structure,to clarify the relationship and mechanism between the change of industrial structure,the housing price fluctuations and economic development is not only helpful to fully understand the mechanism of rising housing price,to promote the healthy operation of real estate market,but also to optimize the industrial structure,and important to achieve high-quality economic development in China.After combing the relevant research and theoretical mechanism of industrial structure changes,housing price fluctuations and economic growth,considering the characteristics of spatial spillover and economic inertia of economy,this paper analyzes the relationship and transmission path between industrial structure changes,housing price fluctuations and high-quality economic development under four weight matrices based on the three dimensions of geography,economy and population by using the inter provincial panel data of 2004-2016 and the spatial dynamic panel model.The core of this paper is to analyze whether industrial structure and real estate market development can be used as a reasonable mechanism to drive economic growth,and how to realize the path of both driving economic growth.The empirical results show that: first,the adjustment of industrial structure can play a role in promoting economic growth to a certain extent,but it is still a long way to go to work as an important path to push up economic development.The optimization of industrial structure can significantly promote the expansion of economic scale,but the excessive development of service industry will cause the structural slowdown of economic development.The rationalization of industrial structure is actually beneficial to the high-quality development of economy.Second,the real estate market in essence is not suitable as a way to promote economic development.The increase of housing price can only promote the expansion of economic scale,not significantly promote economic growth,but also have a negative impact on economic efficiency by restraining economic agglomeration.Industrial structure and housing price will have a direct expansion effect on economic scale expansion,but their interaction will have a negative impact on economic growth,which confirms the view that the real estate market is not suitable as the driving force of economic growth.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions to promote the stable and healthy development of economy from two aspects of housing price governance and industrial structure adjustment,in order to provide reference for the high-quality development of economy and the long-term development of the real estate market.