The Influence Of The World Horticultural Exposition On The Number Of Tourists In The City

The world horticultural exposition is an international exhibition approved by the International Association of Horticultural Producers(AIPH).It belongs to the highest level of professional international exhibition.It has gathered excellent horticultural products and exotic flowers and plants from all over the world.With its huge international influence and comprehensive benefits brought to the city,it has attracted the active bidding of many cities in the world.From 1999 to 2019,China has been holding the world horticultural exposition for 20 years Eight World Horticultural Exposition have been held in Kunming,Shenyang,Xi'an,Qingdao,Beijing and other places.Yangzhou has successfully applied for the 2021 World Horticultural Exposition.The world horticultural exposition can be said to be one of the important festival activities to promote the development of urban tourism in China and improve its popularity.On the one hand,the Expo attracts many cities in China to actively bid for the Expo,on the other hand,there is a phenomenon that the actual number of visitors to the Expo is far less than the expected number of tourists,and the park is idle after the Expo,while the academic community lacks relevant literature to systematically evaluate the benefits of the Expo.The current research mainly focuses on the prediction of the passenger flow before the Expo and the qualitative analysis of the park planning after the Expo Up.This paper creatively introduces structural equation model to construct counterfactual inference by combing the relevant literature about the impact of festival activities on the development of urban tourism at home and abroad,and drawing on the quantitative methods commonly used in academic policy evaluation.First of all,according to the two dimensions of city function scale and city function status,this paper classifies the types of city tourism,and selects the control group members of each experimental group.Taking the growth rate of the number of tourists in the city as the observation variable,the structural equation model is established for each city holding the world horticultural exposition,and the function of the structural equation to estimate the potential variable is used to construct the counterfactual inference of the experimental city,which is compared with the actual value of the number of tourists,so as to test the impact of the world horticultural exposition on the tourism industry of the host city.In addition,the robustness of the model is tested to verify the validity of the results.Next,the paper analyzes the impact of the Expo on urban differentiation from the aspects of urban tourism type,traffic accessibility and tourist source structure.The traffic accessibility is divided into the traffic accessibility from other cities to the destination city and the traffic accessibility from the city center to the park.From the above analysis,we can get the impact and duration of the Expo on the host city,analyze the reasons for the heterogeneity of the impact of the Expo on urban tourism,and give reasonable suggestions for the cities that apply for the Expo in the future.The final conclusion of this paper is as follows:(1)the positive benefits of the Expo to Xi'an,Qingdao and other large tourism cities are limited,and the benefits gradually disappear within three years after the Expo.(2)Tangshan is a medium-sized tourist city with relatively concentrated tourist source structure,and it is close to the transportation hub.The world horticultural exposition can bring significant positive benefits by establishing a transportation network around the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration.(3)Shenyang and Jinzhou are cities without tourism characteristics.The holding of the world horticultural exposition can stimulate the rapid development of local tourism in that year.However,due to the limited traffic and the low degree of service specialization,the tourism industry will be depressed in the next three years.In general,the holding of World Horticultural Exposition in large-scale tourism cities has a limited pulling effect on tourism industry.The bidding city is the best for small and mediumsized tourism cities,with good traffic conditions and professional services.The construction of the park should be combined with local characteristics to enhance tourists' perception.