Research On The Temporal And Spatial Evolution And Influencing Factors Of China's Urban Economic Transformation

In the context of economic globalization,Chinese cities are entering a historical stage of overall transformation.The ability of a city's economic transformation not only determines the level of economic development of the city,but also has a profound impact on the economic and social development of the region and the country.China's vast geographical characteristics,unique economic development background,and compressed urbanization development model have caused significant economic transition gaps between cities and regions.The research on the spatial and temporal pattern and evolution of China's urban economic transition activities has been conducted.It is of great significance to increase the understanding of the spatial evolution laws of urban economic transformation,and to optimize the national economic development pattern in practice to promote coordinated regional development.This paper selected 291 prefecture-level cities and municipalities in China from 2003 to 2017 as research objects.Based on econometric analysis,visualization analysis,and spatial analysis,the spatial pattern,evolution characteristics,and influencing factors of China's urban economic transformation were analyzed.The following conclusions were concluded.(1)Regional differences in China's urban economic transition are significant,and spatial patterns have changed significantly.During the study period,China's urban economic transformation capabilities have continued to improve,and the economic transformation pattern showed an increasingly concentrated trend.The spatial pattern of regions with greater transformation intensity has evolved from a “zonal distribution along the eastern coast” to a “three-region concentrated distribution”,gradually concentrating on the Yangtze River Delta,Shandong Peninsula,and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions over the time;the cities with weak transitions are mainly concentrated in the northwest and northeast regions.Over the time,the number of cities has shown a downward trend in fluctuation;the number of medium-sized cities in transition is increasing.According to the analysis of the Theil Index and its decomposition,it can be seen that the overall difference in the level of urban economic transformation in China has gradually expanded,and the uneven development characteristics of the region are obvious.The intra-regional differences contribute more to the overall difference,the four regions of eastern,central,western and northeastern regions contribute the most to the overall difference is the eastern region.(2)China's urban economic transformation has the characteristics of overall weak correlation and local agglomeration in space.By analyzing the global Moran's I index,it is found that over time,the global Moran's I index of China's urban economic transition index gradually decreases,but all are greater than 0,indicating that China's urban economic transition has a weak positive correlation in space.According to the partial Moran's I scatterplot,it is found that there is some commonality between the spatial connection forms of the urban economic transformation index and its neighbors' transformation index and the spatial economic development levels of the cities.High and high concentration areas are concentrated in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the Pearl River Delta,the Yangtze River Delta and other areas.Low-high concentration areas are formed around these areas,and low-low concentration areas are formed in the western area far from the center of economic development.From the distribution characteristics of the scatter plots on the four time periods in 2003,2007,2012 and 2017,it can be seen that over time,the spatial correlation characteristics of the cities' economic transformation levels are not significantly different.(3)The gap in China's urban economic transformation has been increasing,and the center of space has moved westward.By analyzing the movement trajectory of the center of gravity of China's urban economic transformation index,it is found that the center of gravity of economic transformation generally shifts to the southwest,and the degree of migration in longitude is much greater than that in latitude,the reason is that the development of Chinese urban economic transformation is uneven in the east and west The difference between east and west is much greater than the difference between north and south;the urban economic transformation index in the western region has grown faster than that in the eastern region,and its proportion in the total national economic transformation index has also increased year by year.The coefficient of variation presents a significantly increasing trend with time,indicating that the spatial gap of China's urban economic transformation is constantly expanding.(4)The regional volatility of China's urban economic transformation types is relatively small,and the transformation index has a clear polarization trend.According to the calculation results of the Markov chain method,it can be seen that the economic transformation index between cities has a regional trend in time.The cities that are stable in the weaker transition areas are mainly concentrated in the backward areas in central China and the remote areas in the west.Cities with a high economic transformation index are concentrated in resource-based cities and developed coastal regions in central and western China;spatially,the regional differences in urban economic transformation are significant,and the transformation index is characterized by high southeast and low northwest.In addition,the development of cities with a low urban economic transformation index in China and cities with a high transformation index are relatively stable.The two are in contrast,showing that the urban economic transformation is clearly polarized.(5)China's urban economic transformation is affected by multiple factors at the global,national,and urban scales,at both endogenous and exogenous levels.According to the results of geographical probe factor detection and interactive detection,it can be seen that different influencing factors have different degrees of impact on urban economic transformation,and the interaction of influencing factors has a greater impact on urban economic transformation than the single factor on urban economic transformation.Based on the analysis results of the four time sections,it can be seen that the administrative level of the city on the national scale has the largest impact on the economic transformation of the city,followed by the urban economic foundation on the city scale,government investment,and scientific and technological innovation capabilities,and location factors on the urban economic transformation.The influence of the spatial pattern is small.In addition,there are two types of interactions between the factors that affect the spatial differences in urban economic transformation: two-factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement,and the two types of factors of the city's administrative level and economic foundation are the most powerful when interacting.