Evaluation Study On The Coordinated Development Of Logistics Industry And Regional Economy In China

With the rapid development of the national economy,China's logistics industry has a good development trend and the logistics system continues to improve,it has become the growth artery of the national economy.However,there are still problems such as insufficient logistics infrastructure capacity,mismatch between supply and demand and unbalanced development among regions.With the arrival of the new normal of social economy,the development of logistics industry is faced with great opportunities and challenges.Therefore,it is of great significance for the government to formulate relevant policies and development strategies to rationally evaluate the development status of logistics industry and regional economy,accurately measure the coordinated development level of the composite system,and explore the advantages and disadvantages.This study mainly did the following work:(1)Quantitatively studying the dynamic equilibrium relationship between logistics industry,economic growth and industrial structure upgrading.Firstly,according to the co-integration theory,the dynamic equilibrium relationship between variables is verified.Secondly,on this basis,the vector autoregressive model is established and analyzing the interaction mechanism by Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.(2)Establishing an evaluation and research system for the coordinated development of logistics industry and regional economy.Firstly,the evaluation index system is constructed by combining the research results of logistics industry and regional economy.Secondly,the reasonable coordination degree evaluation model is established.The coupling coordination degree model is used to calculate the coordination degree of internal elements of the system,and the fuzzy membership degree model is used to calculate the coordination degree among the systems.(3)Analyzing the difference between regional logistics industry and economic development.Firstly,the comprehensive development indexes of logistics subsystem and regional economy subsystem are obtained by factor analysis according to the correlation between variables.Secondly,the data results of eastern,central,western and northeastern regions are combined and averaged to analyze regional differences and advantages and disadvantages.(4)Calculating the coordination degree of each system by using a variety of methods.Firstly,the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model are combined to calculate the coordination degree among the internal elements of the subsystem.Secondly,on the basis of factor analysis,the regression fitting equations of logistics industry and regional economy are established respectively,and the coordination degree between subsystems is calculated by combining the fuzzy membership model.Finally,the coordination degree of the composite system is analyzed by linear weighting the internal coordination degree of the system and the coordination degree between the systems.(5)Putting forward the path choice of the coordinated development of the composite system.The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis: There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between logistics industry and regional economy;There are differences in regional development;The development disadvantage factors of the four regions are obvious.The composite system fails to realize the coordinated development.Therefore,it is considered to put forward the logistics development strategy suitable for the regional economic development from the criterion level of the evaluation index system of the logistics industry and the regional economic coordinated development,and to provide reference suggestions for the realization of the coordinated and sustainable development of the composite system.