Robust Strategy Research For Economic-Energy-Environmental-Social Sustainable Development Problem

Sustainable development problem aims at effective allocation of resources to achieve a balance among multiple conflicting criteria.The balance among multiple conflicting criteria related to economy,environment,energy and society becomes the key to achieve sustainable development.However,in the process of planning sustainable development,there are often various uncertain information,especially uncertain per capita economic contribution,energy contribution,environmental contribution and social unemployment rate.Uncertainty and multiple criteria will become important challenges for policy-makers to draft the sustainable policies.To enable policy-makers to make substantive decisions under these challenges,this thesis studies the problem from two perspectives of distribution-free uncertain parameters and imprecise distributions of uncertain parameters.First,when uncertain parameters are distribution-free,this thesis presents a robust multiobjective optimization formulation and characterizes uncertain parameters by uncertainty sets.The proposed model is used for allocating labor across sectors to simultaneously optimize three objectives: economy,environment and energy.To solve the proposed model,it is transformed into a tractable mixed integer nonlinear programming based on the idea of robust optimization.Secondly,when distributions of uncertain parameters are imprecise,a new distributionally robust goal programming model is developed in this thesis,which can avoid the distribution uncertainty and the risk caused by the uncertainty.Risk measures are characterized by mean semi-deviations.Imprecise distributions are characterized by ambiguity sets.Under the idea of distributionally robust optimization,the proposed model is transformed into a tractable form that can be solved directly by software.Finally,real case studies are conducted by developed methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models.The major contributions of this thesis include the following four aspects:(1)The safe approximation forms of ambiguous chance constraints under two refined ambiguity sets are derived respectively;(2)This thesis considers that per capita economic contribution,energy contribution,environmental contribution and social unemployment rate are uncertain;(3)When uncertain parameter are distribution-free,this thesis establishes a robust multi-objective sustainable development model.The model is transformed into tractable model under box-generalized budgeted and box-ellipsoid uncertainty sets,and applied to plan the sustainability of United Arab Emirates;(4)When distributions of uncertain parameters are imprecise,a distributionally robust goal programming model is developed.By constructing moment-based ambiguity sets,this thesis derives a tractable model of the proposed model,and applies the model to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.