Research On The Impact Of Macro-control Policy On Real Estate Price Based On System Dynamics

At this stage,real estate is still an important part of national economic development.With the improvement of people's living standards,people's demand for commercial housing has become higher and higher.Te demand from quantity to quality has been greatly increased,and the demand forms have gradually diversified.The phenomenon of house purchase has appeared in major cities,which leads to the over rapid growth of house prices.In order to restrain the rapid rise of house prices,China has promulgated a series of macro-control measures,which play an important role in stabilizing China's economic development.However,China's macro-control policy is generally a short-term regulation policy issued for the current real estate situation,which is lack of predictability for the development of China's real estate industry.The purpose of this paper is to analyze nine cities in China,including the first tier cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou),the central region(Zhengzhou,Wuhan,Changsha)and the western region(Chongqing,Chengdu,Xi'an).The commodity housing price system is divided into five subsystems: population,supply,demand,GDP and land price.The relevant variables such as sales area,completed area and construction area are selected Analyze the interaction between variables and determine the expression relationship between them,distinguish which are the circuits and factors that have a greater impact on the whole system,and then draw the stock flow diagram.According to the data of population,GDP,residential completed area,land price and residential sales area of nine cities from 2003 to 2017,Vensim software is used to simulate the price of commercial residential buildings from 2003 to 2017,and to predict the price of residential buildings from 2018 to 2023.The single index and multi index policy experiments are carried out by adjusting and controlling the tax rate,loan interest rate and land price growth rate.The results show that: the effect of the same control policy applied to different economic levels is different;the adjustment of loan interest rate has less impact on the price of commercial housing,and the land price and tax rate have more significant impact on the price of commercial housing.Comprehensive control is better than single control,and the government departments can carry out comprehensive control and stabilize house prices at the same time.