Research On Prefabricated Building Market Simulation And Policy Optimization From A Low Carbon Perspective

With the continuous improvement of China's urbanization level and construction technology level,the traditional houses built by cast-in-place have not met the green and healthy development due to the energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by the production and consumption of buildings and related industries in the upstream and downstream.idea.According to statistics from the International Energy Agency(IEA),building energy consumption accounts for 35% of the world 's total terminal energy consumption,making it the largest end-use energy sector.At the same time,the advantages of prefabricated production methods are gradually becoming obvious.The Chinese government regards prefabricated buildings as a countermeasure to reduce carbon emissions during the construction phase and continuously accelerates the development of prefabricated buildings.Different provinces and cities have also actively formulated relevant supporting policies in conjunction with national policies.However,due to differences in economic development,industrial foundation,and policy support in different regions,the development level of prefabricated buildings in different regions is also different.Xi'an,as the leader of the Guanzhong urban agglomeration,is also the capital of Shaanxi Province,the country's first batch of low-carbon pilot provinces.On the basis of superimposed policies such as the Western Development,it also ushered in the implementation of the national “Belt and Road” strategy.Therefore,with the help of system dynamics to analyze the implementation effect of the prefabricated housing market policy,and formulate a systematic policy strategy combination to optimize the current policy,the analysis and research on the impact of Xi'an prefabricated housing market support policy from a low-carbon perspective will have Important practical significance.This article reviews the research on prefabricated buildings at home and abroad,as well as the research on policy effects analysis with the help of system dynamics from a low-carbon perspective,and clarifies the research ideas and methods;it focuses on the policy incentive mechanism,economic externalities and system dynamics.The guiding role of theories and methods in the simulation research of prefabricated housing market.Secondly,based on the simulation system of the traditional construction market,the subdivision of the prefabricated residential market system from the perspective of lowcarbon economy,technology,social population,building carbon emissions,government decision-making,market supply and demand subsystems,and analysis of the subsystems The mechanism of action,drawing the system's causal circuit diagram.Thirdly,a comprehensive analysis of the development status of the prefabricated building market in Xi'an in the research area is pointed out,which points out that it lacks relevant policies to motivate the main body of the market structure,and constructs and tests a system dynamics model of the prefabricated residential market in Xi'an from a low-carbon perspective.On this basis,the current situation of Xi'an prefabricated housing market under the benchmark situation is simulated and predicted,and the sensitivity of the four types of policies such as finance,taxation,floor area ratio and financial subsidies is investigated.Then,according to the four sensitive policies identified,two comprehensive policy schemes are proposed to simulate the residential carbon emissions,the supply and demand of the prefabricated housing market,and then determine the policy combination plan of the prefabricated construction market from a low-carbon perspective.Finally,combined with the conclusions of the policy simulation of the prefabricated housing market,a policy optimization strategy for the development of the prefabricated construction market from a low-carbon perspective is proposed.