Research On Simulation Of Commodity Residential Demand Of Nanchang Based On System Dynamics

Recently, with the rapid development of the national economy, the trend of real estate investment scale has been increasing year by year, city commodity residential quality also is rising. Due to the urban resident’s disposable income is increasing year by year, the ability of urban resident improves considerably, the housing demand is also increasing, the form also presents diversified; the housing sale areas of Major cities present sustainable growth, and parts of the city housing sales prices are rising so fast, real estate market triggered the high attention of the society. The department of government take relevant policy regulation in time, but the effect is not obvious. Therefore, researching the law of development of commodity housing market has the important practical significance.The research object is based on real estate residential market of NanChang, rely on the analysis of the current condition of the commodity residential market of NanChang, through the analysis of mutual influence of the relationship between market price, supply and demand systematically. From the urban population system, economic development system, housing demand system, housing supply system, house price system, we divided the residential demand into four categories:the marriage, investment, improvement, the others(because of the demolition, giving for parents, children, no room, go to school, work needs and so on), then we construct the model of corresponding commodity residential market to simulate experiment. Based on the theory of system dynamics basic flow tree, and use Vensim software to predict the tendency of the housing market of NanChang from2011to2015. Finally, from the point of the view of micromanagement, we establish four parameter control type: the urban population policy, urban construction policy, tax policy, the supply policy of the policy room, then analysis the simulation results.Finally, we get the following conclusions:The effective policy regulation of urban population will adjust commodity residential market’s the balance relations of supply and demand; planning the supply scale of housing market reasonably will slow down the imbalance between supply and demand. So we will reach the purpose of controlling price, Nowdays speeding up the construction of indemnificatory housing project can restrain the high housing price from the domestic residential market.