Anti-fragility Evaluation Of Complex Supply Chain System Based On RAGA-PP Model

Modern supply chain has become an indispensable part for enterprises to expand global business and achieve professional division of labor.Safe supply chain management is not only an effective guarantee for the normal operation of enterprises,but also an important means for enterprises to improve production efficiency and obtain benefits.However,in daily business activities,as the carrier of information transmission and factor flow,the internal and external environment faced by the supply chain is full of uncertainty,and the supply chain disruption event causes huge losses to stakeholders in each chain.Ensuring the reliable operation of the supply chain is not only the need for the normal flow of system resources,but also the necessity for enterprises to achieve competitive advantage.Traditional risk response mostly adopts defensive and evasive methods,which are passive response in essence.The fundamental way to maintain long-term survival in chaos is to build an anti-fragile system to adapt to risks and enhance the ability of the system through trial and error.Anti-fragility is a description of the characteristics of life and complex systems that not only benefit from stress and chaos,but also survive and prosper through such fluctuations.Supply chain system is an open and complex system with multi-elements and multi-levels,the non-linear effect of organizational elements is produced through competition and cooperation,and self-evolution is realized by external shocks,which shows anti-fragility characteristics.The concept of anti-fragility opens up a new perspective for systemic risk perception.Therefore,it is necessary to understand the connotation of anti-fragility theory and apply it to the field of supply chain.Starting from the complexity of supply chain system,this paper demonstrates its anti-fragility characteristics,and conducts research on anti-fragility factors and evaluation models.The specific contents are as follows:Firstly,it defined the anti-fragility connotation of supply chain system according to the characteristics of complex systems,analyzed the risk,internal self-organization and emergent mechanism,sorted out the driving force of supply chain anti-fragility,discussed the system trends at different stages under the influence of risk,and revealed the anti-fragility of supply chain system.Secondly,based on the anti-fragile representation of the supply chain system,the influencing factors are determined from the three aspects: risk resistance ability,system recovery ability,evolutionary and organizational ability.Literature review,questionnaire survey,critical ratio test and homogeneity test are used to screen the antifragility evaluation index of supply chain system.The evaluation index system was constructed to explain the anti-fragility characteristics of the supply chain system from multiple perspectives,and lay the foundation for subsequent evaluation.Finally,the anti-fragility evaluation model of complex supply chain system is constructed by using accelerated genetic algorithm to optimize the projection pursuit method,and the validity of the model is verified by typical supply chain system.The results show that the proposed evaluation system and the selected evaluation model can better measure the current level of anti-fragility in the supply chain.The research results have certain reference significance for the improvement of anti-fragility of supply chain system in automotive industry.