Study On Retailer's Ordering And Pricing Strategies For Organic Agricultural Product Considering Uncertain Demand

With the development of the economy and the improvement of people's living standards,the diet structure and consumption concept have also gradually changed from the pursuit of food "quantity" to "quality".At the same time,with the frequent occurrence of food quality and safety issues,people pay more and more attention to pesticide residues.Food quality and safety issues brought about by antibiotic abuse and genetic modification technology.Therefore,as high-quality,safe and healthy organic agricultural products,consumers are increasingly favored.However,the actual situation is that the output rate of organic agricultural products is lower than that of traditional agricultural products,which suffers losses easily and the price is too high.The research on organic agricultural product supply chain and the development of organic agricultural products are not only necessary for us to protect the natural environment,but also an important requirement for protecting our physical and mental health.Therefore,based on the actual problem,this paper uses fuzzy theory,utility theory and mathematical method to study the ordering and pricing of organic agricultural retailers.First of all,considering the organic agricultural products with supply chain risks,replenishment difficulties,and the huge circulation wastage,the single-source purchasing model and the dual-source purchasing model with one-way substitution for organic and ordinary agricultural products were studied respectively.The retailer's optimal ordering strategy and the maximum expected profit under different conditions were discussed and analyzed.The results show that the retailer's optimal ordering strategy is not unique,and the degree of agricultural product consumption,sales price,market demand,etc.will affect the choice of the optimal strategy.When the profit per unit of agricultural product is less than(greater than)the loss caused by unsold,a conservative(positive)procurement strategy should be adopted to order less(more)agricultural products to avoid inventory surplus(supply shortage).In addition,the greater the substitution effect of ordinary agricultural products,the more retailers tend to choose a dual source procurement strategy.Then,considering the impact of heterogeneous characteristics of consumers on the selection of organic agricultural products and common products,respectively discuss the operational models of organic agricultural products under different dominant forces,and study the pricing policies and maximum profits of organic agricultural products under the leadership of retailers and suppliers.The different pricing policies obtained are analyzed and compared.The results show that the pricing policy of agricultural products under centralized decision-making is less than the pricing policy under decentralized decision-making;in decentralized decision-making,retailer-led pricing decisions are the same as supplier-driven pricing decisions;the proportion of consumers with quality preferences and the sensitivity to the willingness to pay have an impact on the organic agricultural product supply chain.In summary,in view of the practical problems of organic agricultural products,the core enterprises such as supermarkets and hypermarkets are the main research objects,and the product quality and price issues that consumers are most concerned about in agricultural products will be solved,which will provide a theoretical reference for the effective management of organic agricultural product supply chains.It is of great significance to improve the decision-making level and efficiency of agricultural retailers.