Spatial And Temporal Pattern Of City Shrinkage And Its Driving Forces In China

Since the end of the 20 th century,the phenomenon of "city shrinkage" characterized by population reduction has become more and more common all over the world.In many western developed countries,the study of urban contraction has been carried out for a long time.In China,with the successful practice of reform and opening up,urbanization and rapid economic development in recent years,the general planning is based on urban expansion,less consideration of urban contraction.However,due to the imbalance of regional economic development and the aging of population,the phenomenon of urban contraction has appeared in China.Therefore,it is of positive significance for the sustainable development of Chinese cities to fully understand the pattern of urban contraction,reveal its temporal and spatial changes,correctly identify the influencing factors of urban contraction,and actively adjust urban planning.Based on the basic unit of all prefecture level cities in China,using the city statistical yearbook data and the social and economic statistical data of the corresponding year,and taking the change rate of the total registered population and the employed population as the measurement index,this paper calculates the spatial and temporal pattern of population contraction of "2010-2013" and "2013-2016" prefecture level cities in China respectively according to the four economic divisions,and reveals the change law;In this paper,industrial structure,urban scale and other characteristics are selected to explore the characteristics of shrinking cities,and the two-dimensional registered population Shrinking Cities of "city-municipal area" are calculated to explore their temporal and spatial laws;In this paper,Pearson correlation analysis is used to identify the significant factors that cause urban contraction,and it is incorporated into the Ordinary Least Square(OLS)and Geographic Weighted Regression(GWR)models to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the impact factors on urban contraction under the GWR Model.The direct conclusion of this paper is as follows:1)During the "2010-2013" period,there were 77 cities with household registration population shrinking,the shrinking degree was generally below 5%,and the number showed obvious regional differences,that is,the most in Northeast China,the least in East China;25 cities with employment population shrinking,the city shrinking degree in Northeast China was high,and the number did not show obvious regional differences.During the "2013-2016" period,there were 81 cities with household registration shrinking,and there were high-level Shrinking Cities in the western region,showing regional differences in number;there were 95 cities with employment shrinking,and there were high-level Shrinking Cities in all four regions,showing no obvious regional differences in number.2)The urban contraction pattern and its changes measured by different population indicators are not exactly the same,the number of cities with household registration shrinking is not obvious,but the regional distribution changes greatly,that is,from the largest number of cities shrinking in the northeast to the largest number of cities shrinking in the West;the number of cities with employment shrinking increases greatly,but there has been no obvious regional difference.3)The characteristics of Shrinking Cities calculated by the two indicators are basically the same,that is,the proportion of the population with primary production is large,the proportion of the population with secondary and tertiary production is small,and the city scale is small.During the period of "2010-2013",the two-dimensional shrinkage cities of household registration population are mainly class I cities,and class IV shrinkage cities are mainly distributed in the northeast region;during the period of "2013-2016",class IV shrinkage cities are still mainly distributed in the northeast region,but the number of such shrinkage cities in the western region has also significantly increased.4)The influencing factors that cause the contraction of Chinese registered population include the initial per capita GDP,GDP change rate,the change rate of the number of primary school students,the change rate of the number of beds in hospitals,the change rate of the number of full-time teachers and so on,and these influencing factors show obvious regional differences.