Research On Tariff Reduction Effect Of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

With the global economic integration and the acceleration of regional trade cooperation,the multilateral trading system and regional trade agreements have became the main drivers of globalization.According to the statistics of the World Trade Organization(WTO)in the first half of 2019,there are 474 free trade zones in the world in the form of regional trade agreements.As the first free trade zone established by China,the China-ASEAN free trade area has developed more rapidly since the China-ASEAN free trade area was upgraded to full effect.Upgrading the full entry into force of the Protocol indicates that the scope of cooperation between China and ASEAN countries is more extensive and the degree of cooperation is deeper,which has accelerated the process of China's implementation of the free trade zone strategy.Tariff reduction is the core content of the free trade zone negotiations.Tariff reduction in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is also the primary measure for the construction of the free trade zone.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the effect of tariff reduction in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.On the one hand,it can effectively promote the economic and trade cooperation between the two sides to a new level and provide new assistance for the economic development of both sides;On the other hand,it can also provide effective guidance for the free trade zones that we are negotiating(such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement)and the free trade zones that we are studying(such as China-Colombia Free Trade Zone),which will help China build a network of free trade zones based on the surrounding areas,radiating the "Belt and Road" and facing the world.In order to make the research more targeted,this article limits the analysis perspective to the research on the impact of China-ASEAN free trade area tariff reduction on China's import trade.On this basis,the research object is further locked to ASEAN countries to study the tariff reduction on China's import trade from ASEAN.Therefore,this article is divided into four parts to elaborate.The first part is the introduction and the literature research part,namely Chapter 1and Chapter 2 of this article.Chapter 1 is an introduction,mainly including the background,significance and content of this article.Chapter 2 is a literature review,mainly combing the literature on tariff selection issues and analysis of tariff reduction effects.The second part is the qualitative research part,namely Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 of this article.Chapter 3 divides tariff-reduced products into three categories according to the tariff reduction method of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,followed by "early harvest" products,normal products and sensitive products,and conducts specific tariff reduction characteristics of these three types of products,especially the 10 ASEAN countries.Chapter 4 analyzes the tariff reduction effects of ASEAN as a whole and 10 countries from the perspective of total trade and duty-free goods.The third part is the quantitative research part.This is Chapter 5 of this article.This chapter mainly uses the gravitational trade model,adding the average tariff rate as the main explanatory variable to the model,on this basis to quantitatively study the tariff reduction effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.The fourth part is conclusions and recommendations,namely Chapter 6 of this article.On the whole,tariff reduction has an obvious stimulating effect on China's import trade from ASEAN,that is,it will promote my country's import from ASEAN.However,when the tariff reduces to a certain level and tends to stabilize,this stimulus will be weakened.From the perspective of 10 ASEAN countries,the stimulus effect of tariff cuts on Brunei is not obvious;Malaysia,Indonesia,Cambodia,Myanmar,Thailand,Vietnam and other countries receive significant stimulus effect from tariff cuts;while tariff reduction has no obvious trade stimulus effect on the Philippines and Singapore.Based on the above research conclusions,this article makes the following policy recommendations.Firstly,use the "Internet +" thinking to innovate the new direction of trade development between China and ASEAN;secondly,focus on nationalheterogeneity and explore new ways of trade growth;finally,use big data technology to enhance the level of China-ASEAN trade cooperation.