| At present,economy of China is facing downward pressure.PPP projects can not only easing the pressure on government fiscal expenditures,but also bring advanced technologies and equipment from social capital party,professional management,and mature operating models.Because the planning and implementation of PPP projects are closely related to policies,it is difficult to transplant foreign experience.The problem of social capital participation in PPP projects is prominent,and the financial risk problems are becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out financial risk identification,assessment and control based on the actual needs of PPP projects and social capital parties.This article sorts out the financial risk related theories of PPP projects at home and abroad through theoretical research,and analyzes the participants of PPP projects.It is concluded that the government and social capital parties of PPP projects have different demands,so the financial risks are different.The financial risk of the government side focuses on financial affordability risk and value-for-money risk,while the financial risk of the social capital side needs to be analyzed one by one from the financial risks of financing,investment,operation,and other aspects.Ultimately the social capital side should make a trade-off between losses caused by financial risks and project benefits.In this paper,Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced,and an accurate linkage financial evaluation model is constructed by computer.The results of financing risk,investment risk,operating risk,and other risks are quantified in the financial evaluation model.In this paper,accounting identities are used as validation rules to ensure that the correlation between data is correct.By using Monte Carlo simulation method and computer software to realize a large number of data simulation calculations,the above financial risks are evaluated,and financial risks with high sensitivity to future returns and internal rate of return are obtained.This can help the social capital side to formulate countermeasures against risks one by one.Based on the above research,this article conducts a case analysis of the PPP project that the author actually experienced.A risk analysis,assessment and control measures were carried out.Based on the analysis results,it was proposed that the upper limit of the financing cost that the social capital party can bear is a 10% increase in the benchmark interest rate;the amount of investment that can be sustained cannot exceed 771.2383 million yuan.The out-ofcontrol investment caused by external risks should be passed on in a timely manner;the social capital side in the preparation stage should formulate a precise financial budget.During the construction phase,the social capital party can carry out cost control with reference to conventional construction projects,submit budgets and project measurement tables annually,quarterly,and monthly,and carry out comparative analysis to perform implementation supervision.When negotiating with the government,they should strive for compensation or Defer project progress and reasonably determine performance appraisal coefficients.The theories and methods studied in this article help the social capital side to effectively identify,evaluate,and control financial risks.The Monte Carlo simulation method used in this paper solves the difficulty of quantifying the risk assessment,which effectively smoothes the theoretical research into practical applications.Help the social capital side accurately quantify risks and solve academic research and landing applications.Provide some reference for future social capital parties to participate in PPP projects. |
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